Xi's zero-Covid message has implicit warning against Hong Kong drifting from the mainland

In Hong Kong's old days of people smuggling, it was mostly one-way traffic; poor mainland Chinese would sneak across the border or take boats in the middle of the night across the choppy waters to seek a better life in the city.

That is why news of a group of at least 15 Hong Kong residents taking a high-powered tai fei speedboat to Zhuhai in the small hours of Monday morning, purportedly to escape the latest coronavirus outbreak, has gone viral on the Chinese internet.

Two young women in the group tested positive for Covid-19 and quarantined in Guangzhou after spending a day eating and shopping in hotels and malls. Another two drove nearly 500km to Chenzhou, Hunan, where they too tested positive and were quarantined.

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Mainland police reportedly also tracked down the rest of the group, who had spread to other cities in Guangdong and Fujian province.

As a result, Zhuhai police have reportedly put up a reward of 100,000 yuan (US$16,000) for any tip that leads to a seizure of a people-smuggling boat, while authorities in Huizhou have ramped up the reward to half a million yuan.

Photos showing Shenzhen workers putting up and strengthening barbed wire along the land border have also been trending on social media. There have been reports that dozens of Hong Kong residents who failed to make Shenzhen's daily entrance quota of 2,000 people went to the crossing point and waited for up to 30 hours pleading to be let in. Shenzhen's designated quarantine hotels are fully occupied and new arrivals are now diverted to other cities.

All these developments probably played a role in Beijing's decision on Wednesday to put the Hong Kong government on notice for its failure to contain the latest outbreak in the city through an unusual move of making public President Xi Jinping's instructions.

Xi instructed Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor and her team to mobilise all available forces and resources and take all necessary measures to ensure the safety of residents and the stability of society, according to reports splashed on the front pages of the Beijing-backed newspapers Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao.

He demanded the Hong Kong government take primary responsibility for the fight against the virus while ordering the central government departments and Guangdong province to promptly address Hong Kong's requests.

After nearly two years of succeeding in bringing the pandemic under control, Hong Kong is being overwhelmed by its worst wave yet. Hospitals have been swamped, leaving patients waiting on the pavements.

On Thursday, the city's health authorities reported 6,116 new infections and 24 deaths as well as another 6,300 preliminary positive cases, with the total number of cases from the latest outbreak, which started in late December, surpassing the total of the past two years.

Xi's remarks were the first time China's top leader has directly and publicly intervened in Hong Kong's affairs in recent years. In the past his orders have usually come through the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, the country's top agency in charge of Hong Kong, or the central government's liaison office in the city. His forthright tone has clearly demonstrated Beijing's worries and its dismay about Hong Kong's response.

Making public his instruction is significant on several levels. The first aspect is to impress on the Hong Kong government the need to take more decisive actions to contain the outbreak; the second one is to stiffen the spines of local officials in dismissing the thinking behind, and lobbying for, the policy of living with Covid - favoured by many residents including civil servants at a time when the rest of the world has opened up; the third one is to remind officials of the need to bury their differences and get 100 per cent behind China's dynamic zero-Covid policy.

The unusual way Xi's instruction was made public is also interesting. Because of its opaque politics and lack of transparency, Beijing rarely makes public details of Xi's instructions except for propaganda purposes. Moreover, as part of its efforts to build up a personality cult around Xi, the Chinese state media usually splash Xi's remarks as the top item on print media and television as well as news apps. But Xi's instruction for Hong Kong, as significant as it was, was nowhere to be found in major state media outlets - it appeared only in the two Hong Kong newspapers. Presumably, Beijing does not want Xi's stern warning to stir a national debate on the city. In a way, making public Xi's instruction is also a rallying cry aimed at officials in the central government and in Guangdong as those bureaucrats are already under immense pressure to prevent local outbreaks on the mainland. Only Xi's instruction will get their full attention in giving their support for Hong Kong.

Beijing's frustration with the way Lam's administration has tackled the latest outbreak started soon after the fifth wave struck Hong Kong late last year. Officials in Beijing, much to their dismay, suspect that while Lam and her officials publicly say they will follow the dynamic zero-Covid policy, in private many Hong Kong officials are implementing it only half-heartedly. This is partly because those civil servants doubt whether some of the mainland's stringent control measures would be accepted in the city. They are more inclined to open up to the rest of the world.

On February 7, the People's Daily carried a commentary saying that the dynamic zero-Covid policy was the scientific option for Hong Kong. It accused people calling for the city to live with Covid-19 of being irresponsible.

Tian Feilong, an outspoken mainland academic on Hong Kong issues, may have reflected Beijing's deeper thinking in an interview with a Hong Kong newspaper, published on Monday. He criticised the city officials for lacking empathy in their half-hearted fight against the outbreak. More importantly, he warned if Hong Kong followed the Western countries in opting to live with Covid, the city would probably drift away from the mainland and pay a huge price for failing to integrate into the national strategy.

What is going to happen next?

Many people have speculated Hong Kong is heading for a citywide lockdown. That is very unlikely in the near future although parts of the city could be sealed off. The reason is simple: Hong Kong lacks the manpower and resources to implement an effective citywide lockdown, unlike the mainland cities of Wuhan or Xian where grass roots organizations are strong. A citywide lockdown may be the last resort only after the upcoming control measures fail.

What Hong Kong is most likely to do is to greatly ramp up mandatory testing, quarantine facilities and contact tracing, and build more makeshift hospitals for patients with mild symptoms to prevent further infections. This will be done with the mainland's support. Hong Kong officials have indicated that citywide mandatory testing is possible in the coming days. On Thursday, Xinhua reported the first batch of mainland epidemiologists had arrived in Hong Kong along with mobile testing vans.

As Xi made it clear that fighting against the worsening outbreak should be the "overarching priority", Lam announced on Friday evening the chief executive election would be postponed from March 27 to May 8 - the chief executive's term expires on June 30.

This will allow the city to focus on bringing the outbreak under control without the political wrangling. It could also improve Lam's chances to secure a second term if her administration can succeed in curbing the outbreak within the time frame.

But Lam's political prospects have certainly lost some shine. If she chooses to drop out, the smart money would be on Paul Chan Mo-po, the city's financial secretary.

Wang Xiangwei is a former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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