Foreign Policy Magazine

How to Avert Catastrophe in Ethiopia

The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) ruled Ethiopia for nearly three decades before anti-government protests dislodged it from power in 2018. Now, more than three years later, TPLF rebels are fighting to topple the federal government and take control of Addis Ababa—although government forces retook several key towns in December, slowing their momentum.

The United States—the superpower that can bring the most political and economic clout to bear on the situation—must do all that it can to prevent that. If the TPLF is allowed to shoot its way back into power, Ethiopia is almost certain to fragment into warring ethnic fiefdoms, and the country will again become a scene of apocalyptic suffering.

You only need to look at the TPLF’s history to understand why.

A radical political party with Marxist roots, the TPLF was founded in 1975 with the goal of establishing an independent Tigrayan republic. In the years after its formation, the party moderated its position. For a time, it wanted to achieve Tigrayan self-rule within Ethiopia, and then it

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