MISSION 2022

Trust Amit Shah to know just how important the states going to the assembly elections, particularly Uttar Pradesh, in February 2022, will be for the national fortunes of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Last month, while addressing a gathering of over 700 party workers in Varanasi, the Union home minister and former party president told them: “The foundation of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, which will be held under the leadership of Narendra Modiji, will be laid in the 2022 assembly election in UP.”

For the BJP, the seven assembly elections scheduled in 2022—UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Manipur, Goa (which go to the polls in February), and Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (in late 2022)—will indeed be a significant battle in the run-up to the 2024 general election, determining whether the party will rule for a third consecutive term. These states contribute 132, or 24 per cent, of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, with UP alone contributing 80 seats. Barring Punjab, the BJP is in power in the six other states where elections are due next year. The next round of assembly elections, therefore, will be a verdict not just on the ruling party’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic that has had a devastating economic, social and health impact both at the central and state level but also have a major bearing on its prospects in the general election two years later.

Before 2024, though, the BJP has more immediate concerns to address. Elections to 74 of the 245 Rajya Sabha seats will be held between March and June 2022. Eleven of these will come from UP, five from Punjab and one from Uttarakhand. Of