Boosted by China ties, Taliban now faces tough call on ETIM crackdown

As the Taliban escalates attacks to capture cities in Afghanistan, analysts say its confidence has been boosted by last week's meeting with China, even though Beijing did not give a clear indication that it backed the Islamist group's military excursions.

Nishank Motwani, an expert on Afghanistan affairs, said the Taliban's meeting with Wang had "boosted the group's confidence in its military strategy".

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

"Standing shoulder to shoulder with the Chinese foreign minister creates the impression that a major world power has endorsed the group politically, and its end goal to depose the Afghan government," he said.

Andrew Small, a senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund's Asia Programme, said the Taliban had always sought diplomatic support from China, "which has been one of its most promising routes to international legitimacy".

The group would also have sought to reassure Chinese anxieties during the meeting, Small said, adding that over the longer term it would be seeking Beijing's economic backing as well.

Afghanistan has the world's largest unexploited reserves of the likes of copper, coal, cobalt, mercury, gold, and lithium, valued at over US$1 trillion. China is currently the largest foreign investor in the country.

The Taliban has in recent days stepped up its fight against Kabul's forces in a bid to take control of a string of cities across Afghanistan, as the United States continues with the planned withdrawal of all its troops by the end of this month. The group claims it controls 85 per cent of the country, though the Pentagon estimates the figure is closer to 50 per cent.

While the Interfax news agency quoted a senior Russian foreign ministry official as saying on Thursday that the Taliban offensive was "gradually running out of steam", the group has warned of more attacks targeting Afghan government leaders.

They have also demanded the "lion's share of power" in any new government, US special envoy to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad was reported as saying by Reuters, referring to ongoing Washington-backed peace talks between the Taliban and Kabul.

Small said the talks were not likely to advance at this point, but China would certainly like to see the Taliban reach a political agreement rather than winning power on the battlefield alone.

He believes the Taliban has been emboldened by developments on the ground, rather than China's willingness to publicise meetings that have previously taken place more discreetly.

"China is certainly not trying to replace the US in Afghanistan - it would rather stay out of all this and is very concerned about being sucked in," Small said.

Afghanistan affairs expert Motwani said it was unlikely Beijing would have given the nod to the Taliban's plan to capture cities.

Still, he added, the militants believed they had greater legitimacy to carry out their military campaign, including killing civilians with impunity, "knowing that Beijing has their back in the UN Security Council".

Motwani was referring to how China had blocked several attempts by India and Western countries to get Masood Azhar, chief of Pakistan-based extremist group Jaish-e Mohammed, listed as a global terrorist by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

Analysts have speculated that this move was due to Beijing's close ties with Islamabad, its all-weather ally. Jaish-e Mohammed has conducted terrorist attacks in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir, which Pakistan also claims as its territory.

Azhar was finally designated as a terrorist in May 2019 after China dropped its long-held objections.

Yet even as the Taliban believes its legitimacy has been given a boost by the meeting with China, analysts say it faces a challenge in acceding to Beijing's request for it to clamp down on the ETIM.

A recent UNSC report said the group - which is also known as the Turkestan Islamic Party, and is aligned primarily with al-Qaeda - is operating in Afghanistan and Syria.

Herat residents peer through windows of their homes amid intense fighting between security forces and Taliban militants. Photo: EPA

Faran Jeffery, deputy director of the Britain-based Islamic Theology of Counterterrorism organisation, said any move by the Taliban to crack down on anti-China militants, including Islamist ones, would be unpopular within the group's lower ranks.

"The more radical lower and mid-tier militant members of Taliban will see it as a betrayal of fellow Muslims," he said.

With the Islamist group not wanting to anger Beijing as it looks to China to play a bigger role in Afghanistan's reconstruction, Jeffery said it would have to "wisely manoeuvre" the situation to ensure it could achieve the cooperation while also keeping its more radical members appeased.

Motwani, the Afghanistan affairs expert, said the Taliban's political leadership exercised significant control over their commanders, as demonstrated by their deliberate non-targeting of US and allied forces after the signing of the US-Taliban peace agreement to facilitate the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the country.

While it was hard to know the degree to which Beijing had influence over the Taliban, the latter's ties with Pakistan and dependence on the Pakistani military meant it would take Islamabad's lead in relations with China, "which is to turn a blind eye to the mass persecution of Uygur Muslims", Motwani said.

According to human rights groups and a United Nations committee, as many as 1 million Uygur Muslims - the region's largest ethnic group - have been detained in "re-education centres" there and subjected to indoctrination, torture and forced labour.

China has hit back at Western nations' accusations of genocide in the region, pointing out that it is trying to manage ethnic tensions and fight extremism there.

Motwani said military commanders on the ground in Afghanistan would thus reign in "any dissent or actions that seek to contest Chinese treatment of Uygur Muslims".

"The Taliban can utilise different terrorist groups against each other should any group threaten Beijing or Islamabad," he said.

Jeffery from the Islamic Theology of Counterterrorism said the Taliban's political leadership understood that if it assured China of cooperation, particularly on militant groups that Beijing had concerns about, then China would not oppose any future Taliban government in Kabul.

The Taliban-China relationship was bad news for ETIM, Jeffery said, even as it had "gained sympathies in wider jihadi circles over the years".

"It knows that the Taliban won't be allowing it to carry out any attacks from Afghanistan, and the Taliban might even eventually ask ETIM members to leave the country, although I see little chance of that happening immediately," he said.

The US is continuing with the planned withdrawal of all its troops from Afghanistan by the end of this month. Photo: AP

In an earlier interview, Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen told This Week In Asia the group would not allow anyone to use "Afghanistan as a site to launch attacks against other countries", including China. He also claimed al-Qaeda was no longer in the country, though the UNSC reports the group is present in 15 provinces.

However, Motwani said he believed the Taliban would manage rather than cut ties with ETIM and other terrorist groups because they had been useful in the Taliban's campaign to overthrow the Afghan government, capture territory, and assert their will over civilians.

"There are at least 22 known terrorist groups and networks that operate in Afghanistan, most if not all benefit from the Taliban," he said. "If these groups decide to contest the Taliban or go against their policies then it is likely the Taliban will target them directly or indirectly.

"In other words, the Taliban's message is, 'side with us and you will have a home to regenerate yourself and in time, we will give you flexibility to operate in pursuit of your goals, because as a sovereign we will have the right to advance our objectives'".

Small from the German Marshall Fund expects to see the ETIM's continued presence in Afghanistan, even if there are some constraints.

"This is what we've seen in the past, even if Beijing would like something more," he said. "This isn't the same thing as handing over Uygurs to the Chinese or forcing them to leave Afghanistan."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2021. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.