The Atlantic

We’re Zeroing In On the ‘Holy Grail’ of COVID-19 Immunity

There’s no good way of measuring whether your vaccine worked—yet.
Source: Getty; The Atlantic

When Kishana Taylor welcomes her twins into the world this December, she’ll be pretty confident that they won’t be carrying the virus that causes rubella, an infection that can be disastrous in infants. Thanks to a vaccine she received as a child, Taylor, a virologist at Carnegie Mellon University, is still immune to the pathogen decades later.

She was able to confirm that in June through a simple test that searched her blood for antibodies that recognize the rubella virus, and then added them up. If her antibody counts were above a certain level, called a correlate of protection, she and her babies would be considered well shielded from disease. “You are considered immune with a titer of 9.9 to rubella,” she tweeted last month, referring to her antibody levels. “My titer? 116. I love my immune system sometimes.”

The term doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but it’s one of the sexiest concepts in the field of vaccinology. Correlates are biological benchmarks—measurements of a single immune molecule or cell—that can show that a vaccine is achieving its desired effect. With a correlate in hand, researchers can confirm how well a shot is working and identify the rare individuals in whom it doesn’t take; they can suss and fast-track the development of new vaccines. At their most powerful, correlates of protection boil down the complexities of an immune response to a single value—one that can confidently affirm that a person won’t get infected or seriously sick. “It’s kind of a magic number,” Ali Ellebedy, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis, told me. “It’s the big holy grail,” Emory University’s Sri Edupuganti says. “It’s what we dream about,” Cornell’s Sallie Permar .

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