'Substantial increase' in South China Sea patrols by Philippine vessels: US think tank

The Philippines has "substantially" increased the number of boats on patrol in disputed areas of the South China Sea following encounters with Chinese coastguard and militia vessels, according to a Washington-based think tank.

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that from March 1 to May 25 it had observed "13 Philippine law enforcement or military vessels paying a total of 57 visits to waters around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal".

It said this was "a substantial increase over the previous 10 months, when three vessels were tracked making seven total visits to contested features".

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The figures, released in a report on Wednesday, were based on "tracking data from commercial provider Marine Traffic and satellite imagery from Maxar and Planet Labs", the think tank said.

Not only were patrols more frequent, but their location had changed to include four disputed features of the sea not visited during the previous period.

Before March this year, patrols had usually gone to and from the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island, which is referred to as Pag-asa by the Philippines.

"But recent patrols have included the Second Thomas Shoal, which is occupied by the Philippines but patrolled daily by China; Whitsun Reef, where a recent militia swarm was detected; unoccupied Sabina Shoal near Second Thomas; and Scarborough Shoal, where China has maintained a permanent presence since 2012," said AMTI.

The think tank said that from the satellite data, it could not verify Philippine national security adviser Hermogenes Esperon's May 4 claim that Chinese coastguard and militia vessels were engaging in "dangerous manoeuvres".

However, tracking data showed that when the Philippine coastguard sent four vessels - BRP Gabriela Silang, BRP Sindangan, BRP Habagat, and MCS 3005 - to within 10 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal, they were met by Chinese coastguard vessels 3301 and 3102.

"The former began trailing MCS 3005 as it circled around one side of Scarborough and the latter pursued the Habagat closely on the other side before peeling off towards the larger Gabriela Silang. A satellite image taken at 9.50am local time captured the CCG 3102 just 400 metres from the Habagat," AMTI said.

"During these patrols, Philippine vessels are almost always outsized and outgunned by their Chinese counterparts. In this case, the 27 metre Habagat, a tugboat, was less than half the size of the 73 metre CCG 3102, a Zhaoming-class patrol cutter."

Asked why Manila had increased patrols, AMTI director Gregory Poling told This Week in Asia, "the Whitsun Reef flotilla seems to have been a wake-up call. It reinforced what the Philippine coastguard and armed forces probably already knew given the Chinese militia presence around Pag-asa. But now it's in the papers and can't be wished away."

He was referring to the Philippine government's announcement on March 20 that the military had counted over 220 Chinese militia vessels at Whitsun Reef in previous weeks.

"I think they're more worried about China maintaining a constant presence in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, not actually occupying other features physically or taking Thitu," Poling said.

During a May 14 webinar hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute of Columbia University, Poling said Chinese incursions were likely to increase due to the "professionalisation" of the maritime militia based on Hainan Island, off China's south coast.

"That's really changed the game."

He said constant swarming of South China Sea features by Chinese militia ships was aimed at grinding down Manila's ability to keep driving them off.

Filipino international relations expert Dr Renato de Castro agreed: "It's simply a matter of swarming the other side to the point that they cannot sustain the effort and accept the inevitable."

Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said last October that the Philippine navy would begin recruiting local fishermen as civilian militias to counter the Chinese militia.

However, retired United States navy captain Carl Schuster said it was not realistic for the Philippines "to match them gun for gun ... they outnumber you, they outsize you".

Philippine coastguard personnel aboard rubber boats patrol past Chinese vessels on the waters of Whitsun Reef, in the Spratly Islands, in the disputed South China Sea. Photo: EPA alt=Philippine coastguard personnel aboard rubber boats patrol past Chinese vessels on the waters of Whitsun Reef, in the Spratly Islands, in the disputed South China Sea. Photo: EPA

The former operations director at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center in Hawaii, who now teaches in the diplomacy and military science programme of Hawaii Pacific University, said Chinese militia boats tended to be larger than Philippine coastguard vessels, typically displacing 200 to 350 tonnes, had reinforced steel hulls and top speeds of 18 knots.

In contrast, Philippine fishing boats typically displaced around 25 tonnes, were made of light material, usually wood, and had top speeds of nine knots.

Schuster, who was speaking at an April 24 webinar sponsored by the National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea, said that based on documented encounters with Vietnamese fishing boats, Chinese militiamen didn't "whip out guns".

Their primary method of attack was to use their steel hulls to ram their opponents, or to fire high-pressure water cannons at them.

Schuster said these cannons were aimed at a vessel's pilot house "and if you are hit at close range by one of these water streams, it breaks bones" because the typical water pressure was around 200 pounds per square inch.

In contrast, water cannons on Philippine coastguard vessels were typically 90 pounds per square inch, and useful only for putting out fires.

Schuster suggested that Philippine coastguard vessels be equipped with "very powerful water cannons and work in pairs".

A protester in Manila wearing a mask bearing the face of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte pretends to sleep under a mosquito net to symbolise his alleged inaction on disputed South China Sea issues. Photo: AP alt=A protester in Manila wearing a mask bearing the face of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte pretends to sleep under a mosquito net to symbolise his alleged inaction on disputed South China Sea issues. Photo: AP

He also suggested the Philippine coastguard carry out patrols with vessels from other claimant states and the US to signal to the world that "the Philippines is not alone".

Schuster also said Manila should think about acquiring a submarine because "very few warships are structured or equipped or trained to counter it, and so it becomes the unknown threat".

Meanwhile, the militant Philippine fishermen's group Pamalakaya said on Thursday that the constant, heavy presence of Chinese vessels meant Filipino fishermen had been losing around 70 per cent of their income. Pamalakaya's vice-chairman of Luzon Bobby Roldan said the average income of small fishermen had dropped from around 1,000 pesos (US$20) to a "measly" 300 pesos per trip since last year.

Roldan said that "because we can no longer fish near Panatag [Scarborough] Shoal, we are forced to fish 60km offshore where the catch is paltry".

He demanded the government lead a "state-sponsored" fishing expedition in the West Philippine Sea, which is how the Philippines refers to the area of the South China Sea that is within its exclusive economic zone.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2021. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.