Why is Germany sending a frigate through the South China Sea?
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The deployment of a German frigate could thus seem like Berlin's contribution to the Western effort of constraining China - but it is not there yet.
Passages to refute Chinese territorial claims that actively challenge the 12 nautical-mile zone have so far only been conducted by the US. Germany thus finds itself in the company of its European allies, who are transiting in greater distance. However, while the first passage of a German ship through the South China Sea in almost 20 years is a message in itself, not revealing this navigational intention could have been beneficial in its signalling to Beijing. Keeping the Chinese side uninformed about possible courses through the disputed waterway as well as its proximity to Chinese-occupied features would have been a more tangible rejection of Chinese authority in the region, without any confrontational action.
So how credible is a German show of force to Beijing, if it does not reflect Germany's general policies?
Frigate Bayern is neither one of the newest, nor the strongest of Germany's major surface combatants and as such limited in her role as a deterrence factor. Yet despite the countries' previously good ties, she is not exempt from Chinese hypersensitivity regarding the South China Sea.
In an instant reaction Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokesman Wang Wenbin implicitly warned Germany not to challenge Chinese sovereignty and security. Beijing's recent sanctions against European lawmakers and the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies, Europe's biggest China think tank, have further taken the bilateral relationship to a new low. As the naval mission progresses, further, more explicit statements from the Chinese side are to be expected.
Another critical question regarding Germany's new commitment is whether this is a one-time transit or whether it would be capable of repeatedly dispatching units or even maintaining them overseas. Germany has previously been quite transparent concerning the limits of its naval capabilities, also due to the parliamentary oversight of the armed forces. Then, in 2019, Ursula von der Leyen, at the time German Minister of Defence, reclassified the annual reports on readiness of the Bundeswehr (as Germany's armed forces are known) as "secret" after she came under scrutiny for the questionable condition of some of Germany's major weapon systems.
The reports had revealed that in 2018, none of Germany's six submarines had been serviceable for a period of five months, alongside large numbers of tanks and fighter aircraft. For 2020, the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces reported that of 15 major surface combatants, only nine were actually serviceable. Meanwhile the delivery of the new F125 class of frigates has been repeatedly delayed, taking each unit between five to six years from launch to commissioning.
On top of that, the German Navy has been understaffed for years, leading to worsened working conditions especially for ship crews. The fulfilment of Germany's ongoing obligations such as the two Standing Nato Maritime Groups, EU operations Irini and Atalanta as well as Nato's Sea Guardian already take up much of the navy's resources, yet the understaffed arsenals further expand the ships' maintenance periods. Congruently the Inspector General of the German Armed Forces, Eberhard Zorn stated that the Bayern was selected due to her availability, and thus not due to her features.
Diverging opinions on the merit and value of the mission do nonetheless exist in Berlin. Maas' party colleague, Ralf Mutzenich, chairman of the governing Social Democratic Party's parliamentary faction, opposed the mission, stating that Germany should stick to diplomatic means instead. Tobias Lindner, spokesman for security policy of the oppositional Green faction, said that beyond symbolic actions like the frigate a European China-strategy is needed. While the deployment is a certain cause for irritation in Beijing, it does set itself apart from other Western missions in the region, due to its multilateral design. Germany could have chosen to participate in HMS Queen Elizabeth's carrier group or accompanied one of the regular French transits. Yet, it was decided that for this comeback Germany would not align itself with other European powers and their vested interests in the region, but instead would set its own priorities in accordance with its local partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. It will be a detail of great interest for observers, to see in which constellation European navy vessels will visit the Indo-Pacific in the future.
The eve of the Merkel administration may create room for a realignment of the German China policy, the first sparks of which we are beginning to see this year. Currently, the composition of Germany's next government is far from certain. Largely due to major mismanagement in the Covid-19 pandemic, Merkel's party - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany - keeps losing public support, the oppositional Greens are rising and the co-governing Social Democrats have stabilised at a low level. Multiple coalitions are possible after the elections in September and each of the major parties has their very own stance on China, most differing from Merkel's economy-based non-confrontationism. Considering its materiel and personnel constraints, the dispatch of the frigate Bayern underlines a new kind of dedication in Germany's foreign policy. But if the Federal Republic truly aims to become a relevant naval power in the Indo-Pacific, it must carefully balance ambition and resources to avoid overstretch.
Arnaud Boehmann is a sinologist from Hamburg, Germany. Currently he is specialising in East Asian security policy at S. Rajaratnam School for International Studies in Singapore
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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