US-China-Taiwan: how will Joe Biden change the balance?

As Democrat Joe Biden is expected to enter the White House on January 20, observers of US-China-Taiwan relations weigh in on what the impact might be on the self-ruled Taiwan.

Since the Kuomintang (KMT) government retreated to Taiwan towards the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, the Chinese government has regarded Taiwan as a wayward province that must eventually be reunited with the mainland - by force if necessary.

Any move to steer the island towards independence would be seen as a violation of the one-China principle, which Beijing insists is the bedrock of cross-strait relations.

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Washington switched diplomatic recognition of China from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. In doing so, the United States acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China and does not support Taiwan independence. But a joint communique signed at the time also states that the US will maintain cultural, commercial and other unofficial ties with the people of Taiwan.

Throughout his four-year term, US President Donald Trump took steps to strengthen ties with Taiwan, poking Beijing but always one step from crossing Beijing's red line.

For example, Trump took a call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen after he was elected in 2016. That was the first time an American president-elect had spoken directly to Taiwan's leader since 1979.

He also sent US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar to travel to the island in August, which made Azar the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan in 41 years.

Tsai was elected president after defeating the KMT in the presidential election in 2016. She was re-elected in January 2020.

Tsai was among the first to congratulate Biden and vice-president-elect Kamala Harris on their election victory with a tweet several hours after several American media outlets projected that Biden had won the presidency.

"The values on which we have built our relationship could not be stronger. I look forward to working together to further our friendship and contributions to international society," Tsai wrote in a tweet mirroring Biden's goodwill towards her own success.

Back in January, Biden tweeted to congratulate Tsai's victory in the island's presidential election.

"You are stronger because of your free and open society. The United States should continue strengthening our ties with Taiwan and other like-minded democracies," Biden wrote.

Biden was among the 85 senators who voted for the Taiwan Relations Act which outlined the US relationship with Taipei after Washington switched its diplomatic recognition in 1979.

Alexander Huang Chieh-cheng, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Taipei's Tamkang University, said Biden would initially put more focus on domestic challenges, such as the Covid-19 pandemic and economy.

"Washington will have less interest in exploiting a new position on Taiwan beyond existing parameters, nor will it often play the 'Taiwan card' against the PRC (People's Republic of China)," Huang said.

"I see a positive but slow motion picture in terms of the US-Taiwan relationship in the foreseeable future."

But Oriana Skylar Mastro, a China military expert at Stanford University, expected Biden would be "very friendly" towards Taiwan and, like the other presidents before him, would be able to address both pressing domestic and international concerns simultaneously - despite the challenges of the pandemic.

"He will continue to maintain some key aspects of US policy, such as strategic ambiguity and arms sales with Taiwan, in a way that would not provoke Beijing," she said.

Unlike the Trump administration, Biden would not send high-ranking officials to Taiwan to "avoid provoking Beijing's government", Mastro said, adding it was "what [Biden] knows that could really help Taiwan".

The US does not have official diplomatic ties with Taipei but Washington is bound by law to help the island keep up its defences.

In late October, just weeks before the US presidential election, the US State Department approved arms sales worth around US$1.8 billion to Taiwan. The weapon systems included sensors, missiles and artillery, the Pentagon said.

"China firmly opposes this," Zhao Lijian, China's foreign ministry spokesman, responded. "China urges the US side to fully recognise the very damaging nature of arms sales to Taiwan, abide by the one-China principle and the provisions of the three China-US joint communiques, stop arms sales to and military ties with the Taiwan region, cancel its arms sales plans to avoid further harming China-US relations and cross-strait peace and stability."

Within the week, the US State Department approved a US$2.4 billion arms package - the ninth arms deal approved since Trump became president in 2017.

US-Taiwan relations expert Huang suggested that American arms sales to Taiwan would return to "normal" under Biden's presidency, with the administration expected to stand firm on Taiwan's security.

"It will be unfair to compare quality and quantity of defence articles and services provided to Taiwan between the Trump and the Biden administrations," he said. "After intensive arms sales decisions, new arms sales decisions would pretty much depend on Taiwan's financial resources as well as the state of US-China relations."

Mastro agreed and said she believed there would be a slight reduction in arms sales to Taiwan during Biden's term, coming so soon after the US$1.8 billion sale - the island would not be shopping for expensive systems, such as F-16 fighter aircraft, for some time.

Taiwan has been kept at the margins of the international community for years, as Beijing warned countries against official exchanges that appeared to support Taiwanese sovereignty.

For instance, Taiwan is not a member of the World Health Organization because it is not represented at the United Nations.

Mastro believed Biden's advocacy on multilateral and international cooperation could help Taiwan pave the way for expanding its global presence. "The focus will be less on provoking Beijing and more on building Taiwan's resiliency," she said.

Regarding Taiwan's role in the South China Sea's territorial dispute, Huang said Taiwan had long been isolated on sovereignty issues, but based on the "four principles and five actions" that Tsai put forth in 2016, he believed Taiwan would insist on dealing with the issue in a peaceful manner.

Overall, Taipei has just 15 diplomatic allies, after its formal relations with the Solomon Islands and Kiribati were terminated in 2019.

With heightened tension between the US and China under the Trump administration, Taiwanese are alarmed by the possibility of "forceful reunification" with China.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping took power in 2013, he stressed that reunification with Taiwan would be achieved through peaceful means. But in the government's annual work report this year, Beijing has removed the clause that describes the process as "peaceful".

Despite Biden's expected softer approach on the Taiwan issue, Mastro said Beijing "will be smart enough to wait and see, and be patient not to overreact".

However, she also said Beijing could sometimes be "emotional and irrational about Taiwan", which made predicting its moves difficult.

Mastro said she hoped Beijing would remain rational and not attempt to push Biden on Taiwan's sovereignty issues.

Huang said: "The short answer is 'NO' if one refers to unification by all-out invasion; however, diplomatic coercion and 'grey zone' intimidation will continue."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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