Why Trump's Pentagon reshuffle is unlikely to raise the China war risk

US President Donald Trump has abruptly replaced defence secretary Mark Esper with Christopher Miller, who he had only recently appointed as National Counterterrorism Centre director. This and other Pentagon replacements have analysts worried about US-China military relations.

Some fear that Trump, enraged at losing the election, may try to hamstring Joe Biden's China policy by provoking Beijing, particularly over the South China Sea and Taiwan. There are many reasons this is unlikely and, in any case, China is unlikely to take the bait.

True, the situation is dangerous, and a breach of China's red lines could spiral into conflict and war. China and the US have ramped up their belligerent rhetoric, military presence and posturing, greatly worrying the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

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With China increasingly nationalistic, any loss of face (and resultant loss of respect for its leadership) could cross a red line and provoke a response. One example would be a confrontation with the US military that ends up forcing a public climbdown by China's military.

The US has been inching closer to such red lines with its increased freedom of navigation operations challenging Chinese claims in the South China Sea.

It has also increased pressure on China's leadership over the Taiwan issue with more frequent passages of US warships through the sensitive Taiwan Strait, despite China's protests. After Taiwan received its first official visit from a US Cabinet member, the US agreed to sell Taiwan drones and standoff land attack missiles that would enable Taiwan to strike the Chinese mainland.

Recent reports of US marines giving their Taiwanese counterparts special training - which officials denied - was described by China's military as "a provocative move that challenged China's bottom line".

China was infuriated when US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said "Taiwan has not been a part of China", prompting Taiwan's foreign ministry to declare that "Taiwan is a sovereign, independent country". 

In response to the perceived hostility, China claims to have expelled "trespassing" US warships and has increased military exercises near Taiwan involving air defence missiles and anti-aircraft artillery.

It is hard to imagine the situation becoming much worse - unless a red line is actually crossed. The good news is that the situation is likely to be constrained before it reaches a tipping point.

First, the Trump administration has only two months or so left. While that is sufficient time to do serious damage, sensible Congressional overseers and senior professional military officers would hopefully seek to de-escalate any effort to provoke China.

Indeed, although the US power transition is in shambles, sufficient checks and balances remain to prevent any radical moves. Last week, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley underscored the military's apolitical nature and commitment to protect and defend the constitution. He said: "We are unique among militaries ... we do not take an oath to an individual."

He has assured his joint chiefs and combat commanders that there would be no radical changes, which in any case goes against the Pentagon's DNA of thorough planning and internal checks and balances.

More importantly, Trump, reluctant to launch offensive military operations in his remaining time in office, has told Miller not to do anything new or provocative, according to a source cited by The New York Times. Miller reportedly also told senior Pentagon staff not to expect significant changes at this time.

Second, Miller's overseas experience is in special operations and counterterrorism in the Middle East, especially Afghanistan and Iraq. While he and the incoming team are certainly "hawks", most are Middle East specialists with little or no experience on China and Southeast or East Asia.

Their closest involvement with China is that new Acting Under Secretary of Defence for Intelligence and Security Ezra Cohen-Watnick once went after Chinese government officials targeting Chinese dissidents in the US. Any radical action they take is likely to be against Iran or Syria, not China's direct interests. Many think they were appointed to ensure the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by Christmas as promised by Trump.

Pompeo's last-minute decision to visit Vietnam followed by the just-announced visit by National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien indicate that something may be up. One can only hope Vietnam is smart enough not to get caught up in some last-gasp US cabal to confront China.

But even if the Trump team did manage to slip a confrontational initiative past the safeguards, China would hopefully be wise enough not to take the bait. Rather, it is likely to wait and assess the new administration's policy before reacting.

Also working against a radical act is renewed military-to-military communications. As defence secretary, Esper reportedly reached out to China's military leaders to deny media reports that the US was considering a drone strike on China's occupied reefs, adding that the US has no intention of creating a military crisis with the Chinese.

The virtual discussion between military leaders took place late last month, was followed by a second in mid-November, with a third on maritime security scheduled before the end of the year. The renewed communication is a sign that neither side wants unnecessary military provocation.

Of course, there are other steps that the US may take to inflame the situation. It could impose a travel ban on all Chinese Communist Party members. Also worrying is the possibility that Taiwan might take advantage of this period of uncertainty to strengthen its position. But this is likely to be recognised as dangerous by all concerned and scotched.

The US is more likely to be inwardly focused for the next few months at least, and China is likely to give it time to sort out its positions. There is no need to panic - at least not yet. This "massacre" at the Pentagon is more likely a Trump personal vendetta than a considered statement of policy change.

Mark J. Valencia is an adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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