Trump’s Numbers July 2020 Update

Editor’s Note: This update is the first to reflect substantial economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many statistics in our April update were collected before much of the economy was shut down to slow the spread of the virus.

Summary

The COVID-19 emergency and the sudden economic recession it triggered have greatly altered many statistical measures of the Trump years. Since he took office:

• 7.8 million jobs have been lost — including 7,100 coal mining jobs and 274,000 manufacturing jobs.
• The unemployment rate soared to the highest levels since World War II, and stood at 11.1% most recently.
• The economy — which had been growing modestly — shrank at an annual rate of 5% in the first quarter and much worse is predicted in the quarter just ended.
• Stock prices dropped sharply in response to COVID-19, but they have since mostly recovered. The NASDAQ index even set some new records.
• Corporate profits sagged, recently running 6% lower (even after taxes) than before Trump took office.
• But inflation remained low, and real weekly wages (for those who still have jobs) are up 7.3%.

Analysis

This is our 10th quarterly update of the “Trump’s Numbers” scorecard that we posted in January 2018 and have updated every three months, most recently on April 13. We’ll publish additional updates every three months, as fresh statistics become available.

Here we’ve included statistics that may seem good or bad or just neutral, depending on the reader’s point of view. That’s the way we did it when we posted our first “Obama’s Numbers” article more than seven years ago — and in the quarterly updates and final summary that followed. And we’ve maintained the same practice under Trump. 

Then as now, we make no judgment as to how much credit or blame any president deserves for things that happen during his time in office. Opinions differ on that.

Jobs and Unemployment

Job growth slowed a bit under Trump — then collapsed as the COVID-19 crisis led to mass unemployment.

Employment — After nine years and five months of constant monthly job gains — the longest such streak on record — more than 22 million jobs disappeared between mid-February and mid-April.

At the low point in April nearly all the job gains of the previous 10 years were gone. In May and June a little over one-third of those jobs were regained as states eased COVID-19 restrictions and many businesses were allowed to reopen. 

Nevertheless, as of mid-June, the most recent month on record, total employment stood more than 7.8 million below where it was when Trump took office in January 2017.

Even in February, when employment was at its highest, Trump was far behind the pace needed to fulfill his campaign boast that he would be “the greatest jobs president that God ever created.” Up until then, the average monthly gain under Trump had been 185,000, while the average monthly gain during the four years before he took office was 216,000.

Unemployment — The unemployment rate, after falling at times to the lowest rate in half a century, hit a high of 14.7% in April, by far the highest since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking the figure in 1948.

As portions of the economy have reopened, the number of jobs has slowly begun to recover, and the jobless rate has turned down. But as of mid-June, the rate was 11.1% — still higher than any month since 1948 except for April and May.

Before the COVID-19 plunge, the jobless rate in February and several earlier months had been 3.5%, the lowest since December 1969 — 50 years earlier — when it was also 3.5%.

Job Openings —  The COVID-19 shock ended what had been a worker shortage.

As of the last business day of May, the most recent figure on record, the number of unfilled job openings stood at 5.9 million. At that point the number had declined by 210,000 —  or 3.8% — since Trump took office.

The number of unfilled jobs had been as high as 7.5 million as recently as January 2019, which was the highest in the 20 years the BLS has tracked this figure. And for 23 consecutive months, starting in March 2018, the number oflooking for work.