China, if you think everyone's against you, it's time to reflect
If you feel as a person that everyone is against you, before blaming others you might want to ask what's wrong with your behaviour. The same applies to a country. If China feels everyone is against it, it might do best to examine its own foreign policy.
As a rising power, China faces more challenges than others on the world stage, not only because its national interests have expanded and been redefined alongside its increasing capabilities, but because of the systemic competition generated by the anarchic international system. Unlike the United States, China is in the most dangerous place in the world, surrounded by nuclear-armed neighbours and strategic competitors.
The Covid-19 pandemic has further strained the relationship between China and the outside world, while the blame game between Beijing and Washington has fuelled strategic tensions between the two countries. A new cold war is looming in the post-pandemic world. China's territorial disputes with its neighbours have escalated. Sino-Indian relations have plunged since the bloody clash along their Himalayan border. Turbulent waves in the East and South China Seas are rocking China's relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Japan. Even before the pandemic, the European Union had labelled China a "systemic rival".
Wolf Warrior: better as a film than a style of diplomacy?
Is China's "wolf warrior" diplomacy the wrong response? Its ultra-assertive and nationalist posturing has caused a global backlash against its international image and reputation, especially in Europe, the US, and Australia. Even friendly relations with African countries have been damaged, following the alleged mistreatment of African nationals in China during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Life is rarely easy for a rising power, and China might have legitimate reasons to justify its tough actions or reactions towards the outside world. However, with mounting questions and challenges coming from all over, it might be time for China to re-examine the goals, means, priorities and principles of its foreign policy.
What is the fundamental goal of China's foreign policy? During the "reform and opening up" era, the answer was simple and clear: economic development. Has this goal changed for Xi Jinping and his vision of the "Chinese dream"? While the Chinese dream goes far beyond economic development, it remains the case that all foreign policies should start at home. If China's international status is based on its economic growth, the country has reason to stick to an economic-centred foreign policy even in Xi's "new era". International prestige and respect are never built on foreign policy per se, no matter how adept and skilful a country's diplomats may be.
What are the best means to achieve China's foreign policy goals? In theory, a country can get what it wants through either coercion or persuasion in world politics. Despite being ungraceful and ugly, it is normal practice for all states to use hard power to coerce others. Carrots and sticks have been in the diplomatic play book for centuries. However, the real art of diplomacy is to let others give you what you want willingly and voluntarily " the power of soft power. How and when to use hard power properly as well as how best to blend hard power with soft power are tough questions for Chinese diplomats to think through in exercising the country's new capabilities. Wolf warrior diplomacy might serve some of the domestic audience in the short-run, but it will damage China's reputation and status in the long term.
What are China's foreign policy priorities, politically and geographically? China used to enjoy a close relationship with developing countries forged in the non-aligned movement during the Cold War. In addition, it embraced great power diplomacy by focusing on its ties with the US, the EU, Russia, and other advanced economies after the Cold War. Also, neighbouring countries are significant on China's security and economic agenda. However, no country has unlimited resources to make friends with all others. China needs to reconsider its diplomatic priorities and related economic outreach. To become a leader, China needs followers. It is difficult for any country to rise up without a friendly neighbourhood. Therefore, cultivating a good relationship with its neighbours should be China's new policy priority, especially given US attempts at decoupling in the post-pandemic era.
What is China's diplomatic principle in Xi's new era? China has followed Deng Xiaoping's doctrine of "keeping a low profile" for more than three decades. However, given its increasing economic and military power, the country can no longer hide its capacities on the world stage. Some suggest China's diplomatic assertiveness in recent years is rooted in a new principle of "striving for achievement". But to pursue achievement is more a policy outcome than a diplomatic principle.
China needs to reconsider its main diplomatic principle given its new power and status in the world. Prudent pragmatism should be at the top of the list for Chinese policymakers. Prudence requires a cautious and careful calculus of any diplomatic move. Being modest and keeping a low profile is always a welcoming gesture in diplomacy. Pragmatism, however, means to actively pursue outcome-oriented policy strategies. With more power comes more responsibilities. China will need to play a leadership role in promoting international initiatives and cooperation within the boundaries of its own capacity. It was praised widely for its role in nailing down the Paris Agreement in 2015, for example, because of its pragmatic negotiations with the US on climate change.
Finally, what is the self-reflection mechanism for China's foreign policy? In the US there are intense debates on the country's China policy, from "who lost China?" before the Cold War to "why get China wrong?" in the Donald Trump era. Chinese policy elites should have internal channels to assess the successes and failures of foreign policy. Further, open and transparent reflections and debates on China's foreign policy at the intellectual and societal levels will also be crucial. Sometimes, we might not find out what's wrong with ourselves even in front of a mirror. However, we might easily discover our shortcomings through the eyes of others. It is time for China to see through the eyes of its own people as well as observers in other countries.
Kai He is Professor of International Relations at the Griffith Asia Institute & Centre for Governance and Public Policy Griffith University in Australia
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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