Africa's young and rural population may limit spread and severity of coronavirus, study says

Millions of Africans may be infected by the coronavirus in coming months, but the continent's young and rural population may help limit the spread and severity, a new report says.

A study by medical journal BMJ Global Health said a large youth population may lead to more infections but "most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected".

The study conducted last month in Kenya, Senegal and Ghana by academics at the University of Oxford and Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne said that younger populations and the low rates of urbanisation could potentially lead to a lower death toll of the epidemic in African countries than elsewhere.

The study, however, warns that "having a young population implies that many infected individuals may not display symptoms and will risk infecting more people than would symptomatic individuals".

Residents queue according to social distancing rules as they wait for swab collection during a Covid-19 testing drive at Olympic Primary School in Nairobi, Kenya on Tuesday. Photo: Bloomberg alt=Residents queue according to social distancing rules as they wait for swab collection during a Covid-19 testing drive at Olympic Primary School in Nairobi, Kenya on Tuesday. Photo: Bloomberg

The report said that between 33 per cent and 50 per cent of the public will be infected during the peak of the epidemic, according to the BMJ study. One in 36 active cases in Ghana, one in 40 in Kenya and one in 42 in Senegal may be severe.

However, with rural areas, the infection may be considerably lower. "Rural areas and large youth population may limit the spread and severity of the epidemic and outweigh the negative impact of HIV, tuberculosis and anaemia," said the authors for the modelling study.

According to the researchers, the peak of active cases may occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanisation and factoring in underlying medical conditions such as tuberculosis, HIV and anaemia, the study said Ghana may experience its peak between June 2 and June 17, Kenya between July 22 and August 29 and between May 28 and June 15 for Senegal. The study said successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections.

The study appears to support a recent World Health Organisation's analysis that suggested Africa's lower mortality rate may be partly because more than 60 per cent of its population is under 25. Older adults have a higher risk of developing a severe illness. In Europe, nearly 95 per cent of coronavirus-related deaths ­involved those older than 60.

"For now Covid-19 has made a soft landfall in Africa, and the ­continent has been spared the high numbers of deaths which have devastated other regions of the world," said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa.

"It is possible our youth dividend is paying off and leading to fewer deaths. But we must not be lulled into complacency as our health systems are fragile and are less able to cope with a sudden ­increase in cases."

While most cases will be mild, the BMJ study said in the absence of policies further containing the spread, about 1 per cent of individuals in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal, may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic.

Drivers wait for their turn to load their transport trucks with goods destined for the neighbouring Mali, at a port in Dakar, Senegal on April 30. Photo: Reuters alt=Drivers wait for their turn to load their transport trucks with goods destined for the neighbouring Mali, at a port in Dakar, Senegal on April 30. Photo: Reuters

"Looking at how [a] spike in cases was met by various health care systems in Europe and Asia, it is likely that most asymptomatic and mild cases may remain undetected," it said.

The WHO recently forecast if containment measures failed, Africa could see 29 million to 44 million infected in the first year of the pandemic " and 83,000 to 190,000 dead.

But on Monday, WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said that Africa appears to have so far been spared the scale of outbreaks seen in other regions.

Tedros said although around half of the countries in the region have community transmissions, concentrated mainly in major cities, Africa is the least affected region globally in terms of the number of cases and deaths reported to WHO.

He said Africa has just 1.5 per cent of the world's reported cases of Covid-19, and less than 0.1 per cent of the world's deaths. But he stressed that the numbers did not paint the full picture since testing capacity in Africa was still being ramped up and some cases might have been missed.

Africa has recorded nearly 120,000 cases and more than 3,500 deaths, with South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria the most affected in terms of infections.

South Africa, which has the highest number of infections on the continent, had recorded 24,264 cases and 524 deaths as of Tuesday. However, the country has also conducted more than half a million coronavirus tests " the most of any country in Africa.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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