China-India tensions mount as troop stand-offs along disputed border cause speculation to swirl

Tensions at the border between India and China have spiked in recent weeks amid a flurry of media reports pointing to a series of skirmishes and military build-up by both sides.

Neither countries' leadership has issued an official comment on the stand-offs so far, which analysts say points to a shared desire not to heighten tensions further.

Yet speculation has still been rife into the other side's motives, with both trading allegations of attempted military incursions, bringing the seven-decade old border dispute between the two Asian giants firmly back into focus.

According to Indian media reports, Indian and Chinese troops clashed in early May at two different sections of the Line of Actual Control that separates the two countries.

Pangong Lake high up in the Ladakh region of India. Photo: AP

The skirmishes near Pangong lake in India's Ladakh and the Naku La mountain pass in Sikkim resulted in injuries on both sides, the reports said.

Chinese state-owned tabloid Global Times has characterised China's actions at the Line of Actual Control as a strong military response to "India's illegal trespassing incident" and, on Sunday, reported that Beijing is likely to put its first domestically developed unmanned surveillance helicopter into service along the border. Indian media reports, meanwhile, claim it was Chinese troops that intruded in their thousands, pitched tents and dug trenches.

However, it is difficult to judge the true extent of what has occurred, as information is limited and most reports rely on anonymous government or military sources from either side.

Narayani Basu, a New Delhi-based author and foreign policy analyst focused on China, said she fears that media speculation will lead to a rise in nationalism and jingoism in both countries.

"We are constantly getting media reports but very little of it is confirmed. This is leading to a lack of clarity and is, in turn, fuelling speculation about where we are heading vis-a-vis the situation on the ground," she said.

An Indian national flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem in Beijing. Photo: AP

On May 14, Indian Army chief General MM Naravane was cited as saying in response to reporters' queries that the incidents at the border were unconnected and involved "aggressive behaviour" by both Chinese and Indian troops.

This came on the same day as a statement from India's Ministry of External Affairs that said both sides "attach utmost importance to the maintenance of peace and tranquillity" in the border regions, adding that "situations have arisen on the ground that could have been avoided if we had a common perception" of the Line of Actual Control and that established mechanisms and diplomacy would be used to resolve any disputes.

This response was echoed, at least in part, by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian, who on Thursday said the incidents were being discussed "via diplomatic channels". He said this after referring to "India's trespassing and infringing activities" and saying that China urged its neighbour to "refrain from taking any unilateral actions that may complicate the situation".

Since then, more clashes have reportedly occurred, with some Indian news accounts claiming that thousands of Chinese troops have crossed the de facto border at multiple points in the vicinity of the Galwan River valley. One even included satellite imagery that it said showed Chinese troops had pitched tents inside Indian territory, while another said that some Indian soldiers had briefly been captured " though the Indian Army denied this.

A map showing the disputed border areas between India and China. Source: Graphic News India

Speculation in the Indian media has linked the Chinese build-up at the border to New Delhi's opening last year of a 255km vehicle track near the Line of Actual Control which was reported to have "angered" Beijing.

Clashes between unarmed Indian and Chinese border troops are nothing new. The two share a 3,488km border with a number of disputed areas over which they have fought multiple skirmishes and one war, in 1962.

In November, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration told parliament that 1,025 incursions by Chinese troops had been recorded between 2016 and 2018.

But while stand-offs are common, what perplexes analysts like Manoj Joshi of the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank are the clashes in areas where border disputes were thought to have been, more or less, settled. "This is what happens every summer at 14 to 15 places on [the border] where claims overlap. Sometimes there are fistfights as well," said the veteran journalist who is also a former member of the Indian National Security Council's advisory board. "But the three new areas of Galwan, Hot Springs and Naku La in Sikkim are a puzzle."

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping have held two informal summits in recent years. Photo: AFP/ PIB

At his second informal summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in southern India's Mamallapuram town in October 2019, Modi said that the two countries had decided "to manage the differences between us and not let them become disputes".

This shared desire to not escalate tensions means much of the current speculation can probably be dismissed, according to Joshi.

"In the past, too, we have had alarmist reporting. In 2009 when India was activating airfields and raising new forces, stories were appearing about Chinese incursions in Chumar and other areas of Ladakh," he said.

"I think [both China and India] will be inclined to underplay it [this time], communications between the two sides are adequate and I am sure they are already in the backchannel discussing the issues."

Basu, however, warned that time was of the essence if an escalation if an escalation is to be prevented. "This is an unprecedented situation and hence calls for unprecedented solution-making," she said. "Both countries need to activate backchannel talks and ensure that it is handled delicately."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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