<![CDATA[As the coronavirus disrupts food supply chains, who will feed China?]>

Since ancient times, China's rulers have seen the stable and sufficient supply of food as the most critical issue in maintaining political, social and economic stability in the Middle Kingdom " and thus their legitimacy of rule.

However, the Covid-19 pandemic has shaken the global food supply and could bring about a food crisis if governments fail to manage the challenge well, as warned by the heads of three global agencies " the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, the World Health Organisation and the World Trade Organisation.

Emerging economies with large populations, just like China, are particularly vulnerable to such a crisis.

The coronavirus is making it harder to grow food not only in China but also around the world, as lockdowns and travel restrictions cause labour shortages in the farming sector. Logistics disruptions have broken supply chains and severely obstructed the flow of food to China, the world's largest food consumer and importer.

A woman wearing a face mask pays for vegetables over barriers set up to block buildings from a street in Wuhan, China. Photo: Reuters alt=A woman wearing a face mask pays for vegetables over barriers set up to block buildings from a street in Wuhan, China. Photo: Reuters

Quarantine controls imposed by various governments will prevent seasonal workers from getting to farms where their labour is needed. As spring starts in America and Europe, farms are rushing to find enough workers to plant and harvest crops after border closures prevented the usual flow of foreign labourers. For instance, France has called on its own citizens to help offset an estimated shortfall of 200,000 workers.

As many aeroplanes are grounded, container ships anchored, ports shut down and borders closed, the entire global logistics chain for food has been disrupted for weeks and perhaps months, which has already triggered a shortfall in food supplies in China and many other countries.

Even as China gets the outbreak under control, the country's farmers are still struggling to plant crops and to feed their livestock, as their supply of fertiliser or high-demand imports such as soybeans has been disrupted. These farmers have already suffered huge financial losses as their produce has not been transported to markets for sale in more than two months.

Consumers' panic buying over fears of long-term logistics disruptions has exacerbated the situation, with supermarkets in many countries facing difficulty keeping food on shelves.

In response, some food-exporting countries have begun to limit the free flow of food and goods. For instance, Vietnam, the world's third-largest exporter of rice, said it planned to stockpile the grain. Thailand has also banned shipments of chicken eggs to foreign nations after a domestic supply shortage.

The food-supply crisis could not have come at a worse time " locust swarms are now ravaging Africa and the Middle East, affecting food production there. The United Nations has warned that an imminent second hatch of the insects could threaten the food security of 25 million people across the region.

It would be a double blow for China, as the country is desperate to avoid further social unrest that could stem from prolonged food inflation. Due to the outbreak of African swine fever last year and the resulting supply disruption amid efforts to contain Covid-19, food prices in China jumped 21.4 per cent in February, largely driven by a 135.2 per cent hike in pork prices " the biggest increase on record. The swine fever reduced the nation's pig herd by half, leaving many farmers penniless.

Overall consumer prices rose a record 5.4 per cent in January and 5.2 per cent in February from the corresponding months last year. China's ruling Communist Party has tried to keep consumer price increases below 3 per cent, seeing it as critical to maintaining social, economic and political stability.

Economists have warned that the food shortages and rising prices for staple crops are reminiscent of the food crises that shook developing nations a decade ago.

China is more vulnerable to disruptions in the fragile global food-supply chain as it depends heavily on imports for some crops. With 9.5 per cent of the world's arable land and freshwater resources, China successfully feeds 22 per cent of the world's population. It has achieved its strategic goal of becoming self-reliant in terms of its grain supply, with 95 per cent of wheat, rice and corn produced at home. China's total grain output increased 74 per cent from 354 million tonnes in 1982 to 618 million tonnes in 2017, surpassing the growth of its population by about 34 per cent.

China's food prices jumped 21.4 per cent in February, largely driven by a spike in pork prices. Photo: Reuters alt=China's food prices jumped 21.4 per cent in February, largely driven by a spike in pork prices. Photo: Reuters

However, China relies on international markets for about 80 per cent of its consumed soybeans and agricultural staples such as milk and sugar. Though it is making great efforts in food logistics and agricultural industrialisation, it is still struggling to feed the growing appetite of its 1.4-billion population.

Unlike the older generations who only had to worry about how to feed themselves, today's Chinese want to eat more like their affluent counterparts in the developed world. For instance, China's consumption of meat jumped from 7 million tonnes in 1975 to 75 million tonnes in 2017; the country now consumes roughly 50kg of meat per capita. The rising meat consumption also explains why China's soybean imports " commonly used for animal feed " have increased exponentially, from 300,000 tonnes in 1995 to 95 million tonnes in 2017.

A farmer completes his soybean harvest in Illinois, in the United States. Photo: EPA alt=A farmer completes his soybean harvest in Illinois, in the United States. Photo: EPA

The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of the global food supply chain. The vast size of China's food production and consumption make its food supply and food safety issues a global concern, affecting markets, trade and investment around the world.

An international food crisis would not only have a significant economic impact, but also affect geopolitics. It would rekindle a debate among world leaders, politicians, policymakers and academics as well as investors and traders over a question posed by environmentalist Dr Lester R. Brown, the founder and former president of the Worldwatch Institute, in the title of his 1995 book: Who will feed China?

Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on this topic since the early 1990s

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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