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    Blindsided: how coronavirus felled the global economy in 100 days

    A singular event has economists asking the same questions as everyone else: how far is there to fall – and can we ever get back?Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage
    by Larry Elliott Apr 09, 2020 7 minutes
    The Fearless Girl statue in front of the New York Stock Exchange in March. Photograph: Kevin Hagen/AP

    It is New Year’s Eve 2019 and around the world stock markets are closing for business on a high note. Shares in the US are up by almost 30% on the year, those in Japan by 18%. Even in Britain, where the mood has been dampened by months of Brexit uncertainty, the FTSE 100 has risen by 12%.

    Overall, it had been the best year for stocks since 2009 and traders saw no real reason why the party should not continue into 2020. The US and China looked close to an armistice in their trade war, the US central bank was stimulating the world’s biggest economy, and Boris Johnson’s decisive victory in the general election had removed any lingering doubts about whether Britain would leave the European Union.

    New year celebrations in Times Square
    New year celebrations in Times Square. The economic outlook for 2020 was cautiously optimistic after world markets had their best year since 2009 Photograph: William Volcov/REX/Shutterstock

    What the markets had yet to factor in was that on that same day China had informed the World Health Organization about a string of pneumonia-like cases in Wuhan.

    Few of those trading on Wall Street or in Canary Wharf had heard of this city of 11 million people nestled on the banks of the Yangtze

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