19 Dividend Aristocrats That Have Gone on Deep Discount
In times of market turmoil, one group of stocks that investors can count on to deliver reliable income growth is the Dividend Aristocrats: an elite group of companies that have produced at least 25 consecutive years of dividend hikes.
During the 2010s, these high-quality stocks returned an average of 14.75% per year, besting the S&P 500 by 1.2 percentage points. A big reason for the Dividend Aristocrats' outperformance, especially over the long term, is the high dividend component of their returns.
Studies by Standard & Poor's have shown that more than one-third of the long-term total return of stocks comes from dividends. In the case of the Aristocrats, many of them traditionally don't boast attractive yields for new money. But investors that stick with them over the long haul are rewarded with growing "yields on cost" over time.
Reliable payouts also help make this group less risky than most other stocks. For instance, volatility of the Dividend Aristocrats' returns during the 2010s, as measured by standard deviation - a measure of how widely or narrowly prices are dispersed compared to an average - was more than 9% lower than the S&P 500.
That doesn't make them invulnerable from market downturns. A number of Dividend Aristocrats have gone on discount, losing 10%, 20%, even 30% of their value since the start of the bear market. But they offer more than cheap prices - they offer real value, both in higher-than-usual yields as well as snap-back potential once the market rebounds.
Here are 19 Dividend Aristocrats that should appeal to investors who want safety and reliably rising dividends at discounted prices.
AbbVie
Market value: $111.1 billion
Dividend yield: 6.3%
Performance since 2/19/20: -20.1% (vs. -22.4% for the S&P 500)
AbbVie (ABBV, $75.24) expects that its pending $63 billion merger with Allergan (AGN) will offset slowing growth of its blockbuster drug Humira. AbbVie initially said the merger, which is experiencing coronavirus-related delays in closing, would create a combined business that would generate more than $30 billion in sales this year, then high-single-digit growth into the foreseeable future. (The current economic turmoil likely will dampen those expectations somewhat.)
AbbVie develops drugs for autoimmune diseases, cancer, virology (including HIV and Hepatitis C) and neurological disorders. And in fact, one of the company's HIV drugs (Kaletra) is being tested as a treatment for coronavirus. Meanwhile, Allergan is best-known for its cosmetic drug Botox and its dry-eye treatment Restasis. Wall Street firms like Allergan's strong Botox-related cash flows, which they think will bolster ABBV's growth opportunities.
The post-acquisition-related debt load will be high at $95 billion, but AbbVie expects to trim $15 billion to $18 billion of debt by the end of 2021 while also realizing $3 billion of pre-tax cost synergies. The combined business generated $19 billion in operating cash flow last year.
ABBV shares look cheap at just 7.5 times forward-looking earnings estimates, which is modest compared to the company's historical average forward P/E of 12. Dividend growth investors will like AbbVie's 48 consecutive years of payout hikes; a conservative payout ratio of 48% that provides flexibility
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