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    'Flatten the curve': why predicting coronavirus infections and deaths is so tricky

    Experts warn epidemic modelling is extremely complex and some homemade graphs on social media are causing a lot of anxiety • Follow our Australia coronavirus live blog• Follow our global coronavirus live blog
    by Melissa Davey Mar 21, 2020 5 minutes
    Scott Morrison talks about ‘flattening the curve’ of coronavirus cases in Australia during a media conference in Sydney. Photograph: Joel Carrett/AAP

    If there is a message that has united Australians since the Covid-19 epidemic began, it is that we must “flatten the curve”. It’s a mantra being shared by politicians, doctors, nurses and members of the public.

    What is more contentious, though, is how to flatten the curve. There has been a proliferation of graphs on social media and in news reports containing all kinds of data, predicting deaths, projecting infection rates and intensive care cases, and estimating the impact of school closures and other containment measures on slowing spread. Some of these models come from peer-reviewed papers, others from individuals – including respected doctors, journalists and health workers – doing back-of-the envelope calculations.

    Dr Kathryn Snow is an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Melbourne, working in health services research

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