NPR

How Computer Modeling Of COVID-19's Spread Could Help Fight The Virus

As the world watches the outbreak of a novel coronavirus, epidemiologists are watching simulations of that outbreak on their computers to try to predict what might happen next.
Viral particles are colorized purple in this color-enhanced transmission electron micrograph from a COVID-19 patient in the United States. Computer modeling can help epidemiologists predict how and where the illness will move next.

Scientists who use math and computers to simulate the course of epidemics are taking on the new coronavirus to try to predict how this global outbreak might evolve and how best to tackle it.

But some say more could be done to take advantage of these modeling tools and the researchers' findings.

"It is sort of an ad hoc, volunteer effort, and I think that's something that we could improve upon," says Caitlin Rivers, an infectious diseases modeler with the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

In her view, "modeling plays a really important role in understanding how an outbreak is unfolding, where it might

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