Closer ties with China? Taiwan’s voters look likely to say, ‘No thanks.’

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen appears poised to win another four-year term in Saturday’s election, her campaign buoyed by a shored up political base and improved economic growth. She’s also received a boost from the backfiring of China’s pressure tactics – not only toward the island of 23 million people, but also nearby Hong Kong.

If Ms. Tsai prevails, her victory would signal a setback for China’s strategy of coercing Taiwan toward closer ties and unification during her first term. That might prompt authoritarian Beijing to reconsider its approach to the democratic island, or, more probably, to escalate its full-court press, Asia analysts say.

“It’s very likely Tsai will win reelection on Jan. 11, and I