<![CDATA[Doubts over phase one trade deal as US-China ties 'still in deep trouble']>

The "phase one" trade deal between China and the United States is unlikely to lead to a broader pact because "excessive" demands by Washington have left Chinese officials feeling it is "useless" to engage.

That is the view of Jia Qingguo, one of Beijing's top foreign policy experts and a professor of international studies at Peking University.

"Despite the recent announcement that we are going to have the first phase agreement, [the] relationship between China and the US is still in deep trouble and is heading south rather than north. It is getting worse," Jia told the Regional Outlook Forum 2020 hosted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore on Thursday.

The Regional Outlook Forum 2020 panel on US-China relations, comprising (L-R) Professor David Shambaugh, Professor Joseph Liow, Professor Francois Godemont, and Professor Jia Qingguo. Photo: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute alt=The Regional Outlook Forum 2020 panel on US-China relations, comprising (L-R) Professor David Shambaugh, Professor Joseph Liow, Professor Francois Godemont, and Professor Jia Qingguo. Photo: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

His comments came as plans were announced for a Chinese trade delegation, led by Vice-Premier Liu He, to travel to Washington on January 13 for the signing of an interim deal in the costly trade war between the world's two largest economies.

The visit has boosted optimism about a truce, even though the dates were only confirmed after long back-and-forth discussions that reflected substantial differences in how Beijing and Washington viewed the deal.

Jia, who was a panellist for a dialogue on US-China relations, highlighted several areas of tension which have resulted in bilateral ties being "in bad shape".

Professor Jia Qingguo speaks at the Regional Outlook Forum 2020 on January 9, 2020. Photo: Photo: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute alt=Professor Jia Qingguo speaks at the Regional Outlook Forum 2020 on January 9, 2020. Photo: Photo: ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

The ongoing tech war was one example of aggression initiated by the Americans, said Jia, citing how the US would not sell tech products such as microchips to China, with Beijing being "forced" to develop its own alternatives.

"[This] makes it impossible for the two countries to interact and benefit from interaction ... It is bound to affect the trade relationship between the two countries," he said.

Jia also felt it was "very unreasonable" for the US to demand that China buy its products in huge quantities, even though Beijing has made "concessions" such as agreeing in December to buy US$50 billion worth of agricultural goods for the suspension of some tariffs on Chinese products.

As such, a "whole deal" might not be hammered out, as the Chinese believed the US demands were "not about money but about life".

"China's patience is wearing thin. US wants not just some concession from China but to topple the Chinese government and contain China," he said.

Jia explained that China's ambitions had always been to rejuvenate its nation and economy " but inadvertently, the US felt challenged and has insisted the Chinese do things the American way, from political issues to those on the security front.

"The US has come to the South China Sea and tells us how to handle territorial disputes their way," said Jia. "But China has not been telling the Americans to do all these things."

China has always maintained that the US has overstepped its boundaries in the region, with its regular patrols near the disputed islands.

Jia said the military tension in the seas had increased the likelihood of clashes, and raised the possibility of a second cold war. Analysts have previously warned a cold war could result from a decoupling of the two economies.

To Jia, three factors need to be in play before talk of a cold war made sense: military confrontation, economic separation, and ideological rivalry.

"[US President Donald] Trump has not been able to decouple [our economies] as much as he may have wished. But the chance for China and the US to get into a cold war is increasing," he said.

Jia suggested that the US-China conflict would worsen as America enters its election season later this year, adding that a harder stance on China had always benefited political parties.

US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, amphibious assault ship USS Boxer and other ships are seen in formation as they conduct security and stability operations in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters alt=US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, amphibious assault ship USS Boxer and other ships are seen in formation as they conduct security and stability operations in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

This would eventually pose significant security challenges to countries in Southeast Asia, he said, urging nations to come together to hammer out a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea to remove a "major source" of potential confrontation.

He said Southeast Asian nations would also face pressure from the US to take sides, noting how Washington had told governments to not use Chinese tech products, such as Huawei, for security reasons.

But David Shambaugh, a professor of Asian studies and director of the China Policy Programme at the George Washington University, disagreed.

Describing the US-China friction as "the new normal", he said the US would be a positive example and not ask countries to take sides.

"US just needs to be steady and supportive of Asean ... and provide security while maintaining peace," he said, even though he acknowledged that these are big tasks under the Trump administration.

Shambaugh said it would be oversimplying things to describe international relations in the Indo-Pacific as just a "bipolar dyad" between the US and China, but acknowledged the strained US-China relationship had cast a "huge shadow" over the Asian region.

He added that many believe a second cold war is emerging, and that Southeast Asia would be at the crux of the rivalry.

"In my view, Southeast Asia is the epicentre and will be considerably impacted by the US-China rivalry more than most Asean states recognise or care to admit."

Shambaugh said Asean countries would want to maintain good relations with both sides to reap maximum benefits. "But this will not be so easy for them. While neither Beijing nor Washington are asking nations to choose one over the other ... there nonetheless are considerable implicit pressures and inducements being pursued by both powers," he said, citing how Beijing's tentacles run deep for some countries in the region, such as Cambodia.

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photo: AFP alt=US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Photo: AFP

In wrapping up the dialogue, Jia hinted that China's approach to the US would be measured compared to its stance on smaller countries in the region.

"When there is something that challenges China's foreign interest and sovereignty, China's reaction tends to be quite tough," said the Chinese academic.

"But probably with the exception of the US. The US is too big to be treated the same way," he said.

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This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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