<![CDATA[Will Thailand's Future Forward party survive a Prayuth government?]>
On Wednesday , Thailand's election commission will look into the billionaire's financial loans to the Future Forward Party, totalling over 100 million baht (US$3.3 million). If found in breach of a political funding election law, the party could be dissolved and its executive members banned from politics.
The case is one of nearly 30 brought against him and the party both before and after the March election. It follows a court ruling in November in which the scion of auto-parts maker Thai Summit Group was disqualified from serving as a parliamentarian because of a shareholding in a media company.
"We can see clearly that the attempt to stop us is real," Thanathorn said. "And the ruling to dissolve our political party, according to some sources, might be as early as mid December."
Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit at the Constitutional Court in Bangkok. Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit at the Constitutional Court in Bangkok. Photo: EPA-EFE
For observers and party supporters " Future Forward received 6.2 million votes in the March election " the legal action is seen as part of a process of "judicial harassment".
After Thanathorn's dismissal, student activists called for a rally titled "Run against Dictatorship" set for January 12 in Bangkok. "We have seen many abnormalities and injustices in society. We don't want to let this happen. If they continue on in power, Thailand will become a mess," organiser Tanawat Wongchai said.
The event is rumoured to be backed by Thanathorn, but he has denied this, saying the days of street politics in Thailand are far behind. "There would not be multiple days of demonstrations that lock up the country simply because there's no such leader."
Yet Thanathorn has been viewed as a sign of hope for many Thais who have seen their country mired in political divisions, violent demonstrations and military crackdowns during the past decade, resulting in street protests drawing tens of thousands.
Red shirt protesters attend a rally in Bangkok in 2012. Photo: AP alt=Red shirt protesters attend a rally in Bangkok in 2012. Photo: AP
Before the 2006 coup that ousted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the yellow shirts, made up of ultra-royalists and military supporters, took to the streets calling for his resignation. A series of party dissolutions and other cases against the ex-telecom tycoon prompted the red shirts, made up of the rural supporters of the Shinawatra clan, to stage a rally in 2010 before facing a violent military crackdown that resulted in 99 deaths.
The coup in 2014, led by then army chief and current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, occurred after months of street protests by the pro-establishment faction against former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who faced similar allegations of corruption and abuse of power that her brother Thaksin did.
The coups that ousted Thaksin and Yingluck were seen as the establishment's attempt to curb their popularity among the rural electoral base.
Supporters hold pictures of the Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit in November. Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Supporters hold pictures of the Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit in November. Photo: EPA-EFE
Thanathorn's dismissal has been viewed as a repeat of that attempt. "This case must be looked at in a wider context whereby opposition MPs and parties, and specifically the Future Forward Party, have been singled out by Thailand's so-called independent institutions," said Charles Santiago, Malaysian MP and Asean Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) chair.
One of Thanathorn's major reform proposals is ending involuntary military conscription, part of a bigger move to modernise the military and turn it into a professional national institution, without a political role.
The Future Forward Party is proposing an amendment to the 1954 military service act and an end to its abuse, especially when conscripts are assigned as personal servants to superiors instead of receiving military training.
Future Forward Party co-founder and leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit casts his ballot during the March general election. Photo: EPA-EFE alt=Future Forward Party co-founder and leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit casts his ballot during the March general election. Photo: EPA-EFE
General Prayuth spoke out against the campaign and said conscription was necessary, especially in security-related situations or natural disasters.
Academic Paul Chambers from Thailand's Naresuan University said the military-backed Palang Pracharath Party stands to benefit if Thanathorn and the Future Forward Party are removed from the scene, as it currently has a slim majority in the house. Prayuth received 251 votes from MPs in June's prime ministerial vote, while Thanathorn won 244.
"The result [of the Future Forward's dissolution] could be that his party members look for new party patrons, a situation which will most likely benefit the military's proxy party Palang Pracharath," said Chambers. This would be "welcome news to the military, which specifically detests the calls by Thanathorn to cut its budget".
Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha (C) and other officials attend the opening of parliament in Bangkok in May. Photo: AFP alt=Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha (C) and other officials attend the opening of parliament in Bangkok in May. Photo: AFP
Chambers suggested the establishment's grand plan remains: bring Thailand back to the pre-Thaksin era. "Thailand's establishment [arch-royalist aristocracy and military] is seeking to create a complacent, quiescent parliament which does not challenge its domination over Thai democracy. The elite are indeed looking for a return to the 1992-2001 period where such a guided democracy was a reality," he said.
The military is aware that cases against Thanathorn could lead to social anger. In October, Thanathorn was photographed with activist Joshua Wong in Hong Kong, leading Army Chief Apirat Kongsompong to suggest they were "plotting" together.
"I want to ask you students: what if one day a man who is disappointed wants to convince your brains using online media as a propaganda, and calls for demonstrations like in Hong Kong, what would you do?", Apirat said in reference to the ongoing Hong Kong protests.
Despite the odds against him, Thanathorn believes changes can still be introduced in parliament.
"We are convinced that a transition to democracy is best done inside the parliamentary system," he said. But he admitted public sentiment is difficult to gauge. "We don't know what will be the tipping point here, what we do know is the tension is rising."
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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