<![CDATA[Explained: Why Taiwan, US and China are watching Marshall Islands vote count]>

As vote counting in the Republic of the Marshall Islands continues after a general election last week, Taiwan and Washington are keeping a close eye on the tally.

One of China's top foreign-policy priorities is relieving Taiwan of its few diplomatic allies " nations that do not accept the self-ruled island is part of China under the "One China principle". Taiwan is now recognised by just 15 countries worldwide, four of which are in the Pacific " and the Marshall Islands is one of them. Ten Pacific nations recognise Beijing.

The Marshall Islands has been a crucial component of the United States' strategic and military presence in the region since World War II. Made up of 1,200 islands scattered across a swathe of ocean the size of Mexico, the Marshall Islands forms part of an area China calls the "second island chain", where control of the surrounding waters is a central goal for Beijing's defence projection in the Pacific.

The election raises the possibility that current President Hilda Heine could be unseated by an opposition which favours closer ties with Beijing.

Last week's polls for the first time barred non-resident Marshall Islands citizens " roughly one in three of the nation's 53,000 people " from voting by post, dramatically reducing the number of voters. In previous elections, postal votes accounted for nearly 60 per cent of ballots.

According to New Zealand media, unofficial results tallying 95 per cent of votes show that Heine's ruling coalition has lost five seats and the opposition has gained an outright majority, winning 17 of 33 seats in parliament.

Candidates are allowed to contest the results for two weeks after they are officially announced, following which observers expect a degree of horse-trading before parliament convenes on 6 January to select the next president.

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Why are the US and China interested in the Marshall Islands?

The Marshall Islands is one of three nations in the Pacific that maintain the Compact of Free Association, an agreement that allows Marshallese citizens to live and work freely in the US in exchange for granting Washington exclusive defence access to its strategic territorial waters.

Neighbouring nations the Federated States of Micronesia and Palau also maintain a compact with the US.

Since signing the compact as a sovereign nation in 1986, the Marshall Islands has relied on the US for economic and diplomatic support. It remains one of the world's poorest nations, grappling with the threat of climate change and saddled with the clean-up of 70-year-old radioactive waste lingering from the American use of the islands as a nuclear weapons testing ground.

China has prioritised ties with Pacific nations as a southern extension of President Xi Jinping's infrastructure investment initiative the Belt and Road. In September alone Taiwan lost two of its Pacific allies " Kiribati and the Solomon Islands " to Beijing, with the two island nations having since seen a wave of China-backed investment proposals.

Experts warn that the Marshall Islands' ties with Taiwan, as well as its historic defence agreement with the US, could be called into question if Heine is unseated.

The Marshall Islands' President Hilda Heine. Photo: AP alt=The Marshall Islands' President Hilda Heine. Photo: AP

What's at stake in the election?

Incumbent Heine has been a vocal opponent of the closer ties her Pacific neighbours have developed with Beijing. But as other nations have benefited from the US$1.8 billion in aid that China has committed to its Pacific partners since 2006, some in the Marshall Islands have moved for the relationship to change.

Heine reaffirmed the nation's ties with Taiwan in October following the defection of neighbouring Solomon Islands and Kiribati. But she has been on thin ice since her opposition of a proposal to partner with China on economic development led her opponents to push for a vote of no confidence late last year, which she narrowly survived.

The proposal, put forth by Rongelap Atoll Mayor James Matayoshi, was to "learn from the Hong Kong model" and transform the atoll into a China-backed special economic zone.

The Marshall Islands is on the lookout for economic stimulus. Though experts say it has diverse trading relationships compared with other Pacific nations, and despite decades of economic support from the US, the RMI's 2017 GDP was just US$204 million. The Solomon Islands' GDP for that year came in at US$1.3 billion, according to the World Bank.

"The Pacific island countries are facing multiple significant challenges in terms of development, climate change and transnational crime," said Jian Zhang, associate professor at UNSW Canberra at the Australian Defence Force Academy.

"Perhaps the most important country to the Pacific now is the country that can provide aid. That gives China an opportunity to expand its influence. China is definitely interested to expand and deepen its relationship with the Marshall Islands and other [Compact of Free Association] nations like the Federated States of Micronesia."

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What are the prospects for the Marshall Islands' future relationships with the US and China?

The economic provisions of the compact are set to expire in 2023. While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in August announced they were being renegotiated, little further information has been released.

Patrick Gerard Buchan, director of the US Alliances project at Washington think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said if the Marshall Islands were to break off the compact, one of the US' top concerns would be its strategic missile and space-tracking capabilities currently located on Kwajalein Atoll.

Buchan said the agreement was a "win-win arrangement" for both nations and that there was no evidence it would be radically reconsidered because of the substantial benefits the Marshall Islands' citizens gained from it.

But Marshallese have questioned what they perceive as Washington's indifference to the lingering environmental damage from the 67 nuclear tests carried out by the US on the islands between 1946 and 1958.

The Pacific islands are looking for support in combating the effects of climate change. Photo: Shutterstock alt=The Pacific islands are looking for support in combating the effects of climate change. Photo: Shutterstock

On top of this, the nation faces the existential threat of climate change, which experts say is an opening for China to step up. Pacific leaders have said they believe China is serious about the issue.

Zhang at UNSW Canberra said China had an advantage over the US in terms of offering development aid and assistance in combating climate change.

As the Trump administration moves to pull the US out of its climate-change commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement, officials in the Pacific have questioned Washington's ability to meaningfully contribute to their top priority.

In a press briefing earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang raised the question observers say Washington's Pacific partners are also asking.

"We can't help but ask the Americans, do you really care about the interests of Pacific island states and their people? Or do you care more about your geopolitical interests?," he asked. "I think the US side should give a clear answer."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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