Trump’s Riskiest Bet
It’s the nightmare scenario that President Donald Trump’s camp dreads most: an economic downturn that steadily intensifies as the 2020 election nears. What would it mean for Trump if, by the fall of 2020, the jobless rate had doubled, economic growth was hovering at an anemic 1 percent, and, with no end in sight for the trade war with China, the stock market was plunging? A president whose argument for reelection rests on a healthy economy would suddenly find that his rationale has collapsed, right along with voters’ retirement funds.
“Does every presidential campaign worry about a downturn in the second and third quarter of an election year? You bet your ass they do,” said one Trump confidant, who, like some others contacted for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the subject candidly.
However much people may dislike Trump as a. A recession risks knocking out one of the main pillars sustaining him politically. Inside the White House, aides are split over whether one is coming and, if so, what exactly to do about it. What’s clear is that a recession would test the loyalty of voters who’ve forgiven Trump for any number of indiscretions and outrages that would have toppled most other politicians. But even if Trump’s supporters turn out to the polls next year, that’s not enough to ensure his victory.
