<![CDATA[Will Duterte mention fishing deal with China in State of Nation address? No one knows for sure]>
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's State of the Nation Address on Monday promises to be an audiovisual extravaganza, with an 80-piece symphony orchestra, an audience of about 3,000 people and a movie director overseeing the entire affair. What nobody can say is if the star of the show will follow the script.
Duterte has been unpredictable in the three previous renditions of his annual speech before Congress, which is supposed to see him recount his achievements and spell out his priorities.
A recent dispute with China over fishing in the Philippines' territorial waters could be mentioned. Photo: AP alt=A recent dispute with China over fishing in the Philippines' territorial waters could be mentioned. Photo: AP
"Nobody really knows if he'll read the script given to him" said Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform and one of the president's political consultants.
"I have no clue what he's going to say, he likes to ad-lib."
On Friday, presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo said his "educated guess" was that Duterte, who is midway through a six-year term, would talk about "corruption, criminality, drugs, terrorism, maybe the West Philippine Sea".
On the latter issue, Duterte has said he will use his address to "educate" Filipinos on a controversial position he has taken in recent weeks: that he has the right to make a verbal agreement with China's Xi Jinping allowing Chinese vessels to fish in the waters of the Philippines' exclusive economic zone " known in Manila as the West Philippine Sea.
It was within this zone that a Chinese vessel collided with a Filipino fishing boat on June 9, sinking it and stranding the 22 Filipinos aboard.
Duterte says he has made a 'verbal agreement' on fishing with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Photo: AP alt=Duterte says he has made a 'verbal agreement' on fishing with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Photo: AP
Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, who maintains that the verbal agreement on fishing is unconstitutional, said he did not want to speculate on whether Duterte would bring up the matter during his address.
But, he added: "Duterte's verbal agreement with Xi, covering exclusive sovereign rights of the Philippines, requires ratification by two-thirds vote of the Philippine Senate under the Philippine constitution."
"Apparently, both Duterte and Xi wanted to hide this verbal agreement from the Philippine Senate and the Filipino people."
Another topic the president might mention is the recent decision by the United Nations Human Rights Council to investigate his administration's war on drugs, which has left thousands dead. Activists say there have been systematic abuses by authorities in their bid to crack down on drug operations.
The UN resolution calling for a probe, which was backed by 18 of the 47 member countries on July 11, was led by Iceland. Duterte has since lashed out at the Nordic nation, mocking its inhabitants for "eating ice" and saying that he would not answer to "a Caucasian".
But aside from the controversial issues that have dogged his tenure, Duterte is even more popular than at the start of his term, according to Casiple, the political consultant.
"The nation is stable, the policy of 'build, build, build' has produced outstanding results" he said, referring to the government's ambitious infrastructure initiative.
A survey of 1,200 adults conducted last month by pollster Pulse Asia Research found that the issues almost half wanted Duterte to talk about in his address were pay, jobs and quality of life matters.
Protesters demonstrate against Duterte's drugs war outside police headquarters in Quezon city. Photo: AP alt=Protesters demonstrate against Duterte's drugs war outside police headquarters in Quezon city. Photo: AP
Economic growth is expected to be about 6.5 per cent this year, which is "decent" compared to other countries but still below the target of 7 to 8 per cent, said Dr Emmanuel de Dios, a professor at the University of the Philippines' School of Economics.
He added that under Duterte the country is supposed to be undergoing a "manufacturing renaissance" but "it's actually stagnated."
Presidential Communications Secretary Martin Andanar said in a radio interview that Monday's speech will be all about Duterte's "legacy" and will mention infrastructure, poverty alleviation and ending the country's decades-long communist insurgency.
"We've seen the president has delivered on all his promises to the people," Andanar said.
However, Jose Maria Sison, self-exiled communist leader and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines' chief political consultant, said he was not confident the communists would want to cooperate with Duterte, citing his "crimes against the people in the last three years" and "his continuing threats against the people and all the patriotic and progressive forces".
Duterte is expected to start speaking at about 4pm in the Philippines' House of Representatives complex but as the position of House speaker has not been settled, there might be a delay.
That was what happened last year when members of Congress fought a last minute battle to determine who would be speaker of the House, with former president Gloria Arroyo winning.
Duterte gesturing as he delivers his State of the Nation address in 2017. Photo: AFP alt=Duterte gesturing as he delivers his State of the Nation address in 2017. Photo: AFP
When Duterte gave his first State of the Nation speech in 2016, he spoke for 100 minutes, spelling out his administration's aims and saying "human rights must work to uplift human dignity. But human rights cannot be used as an excuse to destroy your country and my country."
In 2017, he stopped following the teleprompter and, saying the prepared speech was nonsense, instead attacked his enemies in an expletive-laden rant. A year later, he managed to maintain focus and list his administration's programmes after the delay caused by choosing a speaker.
Whatever happens this time round, at least the attendees can enjoy being serenaded by the acclaimed Philippine Philharmonic Orchestra, which will be playing a selection of tunes including Duterte's personal theme song Pagbagago.
Joyce Bernal, best known for her local romantic comedies, will be stage-managing Monday's event and has told domestic media that she wants to lighten the mood.
"I want it to be happy because look at last year, what happened?" she said, referring to the dispute over House speaker. "It's like, hey stop quarrelling already."
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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