No One Is Winning the Syrian Civil War

Seven years ago, when Syrian protesters called for “a day of rage” against Bashar al-Assad, there were few signs that they would have an impact. Three years later, as the protests transformed into a civil war, one that would eventually draw in the region’s powers, it seemed a matter of when, not if, Assad would go the way of his fellow strongmen in Tunisia and Egypt. But on March 15, 2018, which by some accounts marks the seventh anniversary of the start of the conflict, Assad appears no closer to leaving office than he was seven years ago.*

Assad’s has kept his position, at great cost to Syria. But it would be wrong to say he is in control. It’s true that he, to Syria’s major cities, including Damascus and Aleppo, as well as much of the West of the country. (Russia’s military intervention in the conflict in late 2015  gave Assad a decisive edge.) Most of the Syrian population that didn’t flee the country now lives in areas controlled by the government. But Syria as a whole has effectively collapsed. Before the civil war, the country was, by Arab standards, solidly middle income. It is estimated that it will take another two decades after the fighting ends, whenever that happens, for Syria to regain its pre-war economic status. The price tag to rebuild the country is estimated at or more if the conflict endures—money neither Assad, nor his patrons in Moscow or Tehran, have to spare.