NPR

5 Laws Of Political Gravity In Midterms. Do They Still Apply In The Age of Trump?

The president implored his base voters not to get "complacent" in 2018, since the party in power usually loses big league in midterms. But Trump has already proven he can defy political gravity.
President Trump delivers remarks at Sheffer Corporation in Blue Ash, Ohio, on Feb. 5. In that speech, he told the crowd "history is not on our side" in the 2018 midterms.

The 2018 election cycle has officially begun, with the first primaries being held in Texas on Tuesday.

In every campaign cycle, analysts look at the fundamentals — the political laws of gravity that — in the past — have influenced elections. In 2016, Donald Trump seemed to defy a lot of these laws, and Republicans are hoping they can do the same this year to prevent the hit the party in power usually takes at this point in a president's first midterm.

Here are five laws of political gravity to watch as the 2018 campaign plays out:

1. When a president's approval rating is below 50 percent, his party doesn't fare well at all

Historically, parties that hold the White House lose

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