Australian Foreign Affairs Series

‘We need to determine a foreign policy of our own – one that looks after Australia’s interest in the new order; an order which will have China as its centre of gravity.’ —Paul Keating Australia’s top thinkers on foreign affairs address the most significant foreign affairs dynamics affecting Australia today, including the rise of China and the election of Donald Trump. The world is changing, and so is Australia’s place in it. What do we need to know? What do we need to think about? Paul Keating discusses changes occurring in the United States, Europe and Asia and how Australia should respond. Allan Gyngell looks at the collapse of long-held beliefs underlying Australian foreign policy and the need to prepare for growing uncertainty. George Megalogenis analyses Australia’s changing demographics and the rapid increase in migrants from China and India – a development that comes with both challenges and benefits. Linda Jakobson examines China’s evolving reach and ambitions under Xi Jinping and what this could mean for Australia and the region. The Big Picture is an essential exploration of Australia’s position in the world today. ‘There has never been a more critical time for Australia to contemplate its place in the world. My intention is that Australian Foreign Affairs will serve as a forum for our most adventurous and deepest strategic thinkers to interrogate foreign policy’ —Morry Schwartz, Publisher, Australian Foreign Affairs ‘Australia is increasingly affected by events beyond its borders, especially as global power and wealth shifts towards Asia. The challenges facing Australia and the region are varied and complex, but they are also fascinating. There is a strong need and appetite for a publication that explores these challenges and debates the ways Australia should respond.’—Jonathan Pearlman, Editor, Australian Foreign Affairs

‘We’ve hidden behind a hope that American power and resolve will again prevail. Trump tears away any excuse for wishful thinking.’ MICHAEL WESLEY The second issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the United States’ sudden shift from the Asia Pivot to America First. It provides insights into Donald Trump’s White House and explores how his unpredictable approach to international affairs is affecting the volatile Asian region. Trump in Asia is essential reading for anyone wanting to understand the issues facing Canberra as Australia’s closest ally recasts its alliances. Michael Wesley explores the challenges and risks for Australia as it rushes to find a new plan for surviving in a post-America Asia. Kim Beazley and L. Gordon Flake assess the North Korean missile crisis and conclude the risk of war is real and rising. Andrew Davies analyses the Australian military’s dependence on the United States and the trade-off for Canberra as it weighs the cost of self-reliance. David Kilcullen reports from the United States on Trump’s strange mix of swagger, fury and orthodoxy, and the implications for Australia of this erratic president and his team. Anna Fifield examines the growing rivalry between China and Japan. Cynthia Banham explores the essential qualities for an Australian foreign minister. Hamish McDonald reports on the role of the Indonesian military in the mass killings of 1965–66. Australian Foreign Affairs is published three times a year and seeks to explore – and encourage – debate on Australia’s place in the world and global outlook.

“Whether we like it or not, the challenge of defending Australia will become much harder in the twenty-first century. We are no longer a strategic backwater.” MICHAEL WESLEY The fourth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the challenge of defending Australia at a time of regional uncertainty and rapidly developing military technology. It explores whether the nation’s weaponry, intelligence agencies and handling of alliances and diplomacy are up to the task of securing against new vulnerabilities in a fast-changing Asia . Michael Wesley examines the state of Australia’s security as Asia’s power balance shifts. Patrick Walters probes the overhaul of Australia’s expanding intelligence agencies. John Birmingham analyses Australia’s weapons capabilities as the military expands its reach. Stephan Frühling explores Australia’s options for developing nuclear weapons to protect its maritime approaches. Jane Perlez discusses the West’s misjudgement of Xi Jinping, China’s leader for life. Matthew Thompson examines Rodrigo Duterte’s murderous rule in the Philippines. Tess Newton Cain reports on mining in the Pacific region. PLUS Correspondence from Philips Vermonte, John McCarthy, Andrew MacIntyre and more.

“While we can never ignore Indonesia’s potential as a threat, its potential as an ally is more important to us now than it has ever been.” Hugh White The third issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the turbulent relationship between Australia and Indonesia, and the missteps and missed opportunities that have prevented the forging of a friendship. It examines Indonesia’s rise, its sharp religious and political divisions, and the opportunities and challenges this presents for Australia. Australia and Indonesia is crucial reading for anyone wanting to understand the intricacies of one of Australia’s most important relationships. As Asia’s power balance changes, the two neighbours need to deepen ties now to avoid a wider gulf in the future. Hugh White examines why Australia should embrace the rise of Indonesia, which could be a valuable ally but also a dangerous adversary. Jennifer Rayner analyses Australia’s economic and political challenges as it struggles to keep pace with its northern neighbour. Endy M. Bayuni reports on the Indonesian perspective on Australia and the misperceptions that hinder closer ties. Tim Lindsey explores the growth of conservative Islam in Indonesia, reflecting on what this means for Australia and the world. Julia Wallace discusses Myanmar and the Rohingya crisis. Richard McGregor examines China’s authoritarian revival. PLUS Correspondence from Tim Costello, Jim Molan, Peter Jennings, Chengxin Pan and more.

“One of Australia’s defining characteristics is the belief that the nation is headed for an Asian future. Destiny allows little room for choice.” DAVID WALKER The fifth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines Australia’s struggle to define its place in Asia as it balances its historic ties to the West with its geography. Are We Asian Yet? explores Australia’s changing population, outlook and identity as it adjusts to the Asian Century. David Walker examines Australia’s fears, hopes and anxieties about its place and future in Asia. Linda Jaivin analyses art, politics and propaganda in the cultural dance between Australia and China. George Megalogenis discusses how Australia’s ousting of PMs affects the nation’s reputation in Asia. Sarah Teo explores Asian perceptions of Australia and asks whether it can truly be part of the region. Sam Roggeveen proposes that Australia should foster a larger Indonesian diaspora. Christos Tsiolkas reflects on the complexities of identity politics. Aarti Betigeri examines the rise of India’s ambitious middle class. Peter Fray contemplates the imperilled future of truth in politics. PLUS Correspondence from Alison Broinowski, Jim Molan, Michael Shoebridge and Paul Bracken.

“There is no Australian future – sunlit or shadowed – in which China will not be central.” ALLAN GYNGELL The seventh issue of Australian Foreign Affairs explores Australia’s status as the most China-dependent country in the developed world, and the potential risks this poses to its future prosperity and security. China Dependence examines how Australia should respond to the emerging economic and diplomatic challenges as its trade – for the first time – is heavily reliant on a country that is not a close ally or partner. Allan Gyngell calls on Australia to dial back its hysteria as it navigates ties with China. Margaret Simons explores whether Australia’s universities are banking unsustainably on Chinese students. Richard McGregor considers Australia’s trade dependence on China and the dangers of economic coercion. David Uren probes ASIO’s expanding role in monitoring foreign investment and asks if Australia’s fears are trumping opportunities. Ben Bohane reports from Bougainville in the lead-up to its historic referendum on independence. Melissa Conley Tyler proposes a new funding model to reinvigorate the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. David Kilcullen offers a US perspective on Australia’s defence vulnerabilities and capabilities. PLUS Correspondence on AFA6: Our Sphere of Influence from Jonathan Pryke, Wesley Morgan, Sandra Tarte and more.

The ninth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs explores the rapidly evolving espionage threat facing Australia as changes in technology enable malign actors to target individuals, officials, businesses and infrastructure. Spy vs Spy examines how Australian agencies can defend against this attempt to not only steal secrets but also disrupt the workings of government and society. Contents of this issue include: An essay by Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong “The Fix”: a high-profile strategist reflects on how to solve Australia’s foreign affairs challenges “The Back Page”: award-winning journalist Richard Cooke dissects key foreign policy terms Correspondence on AFA8: Can We Trust America?

The eighth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the changing status of the United States as its dominance in the Asia-Pacific faces challenge from China and its “America First” foreign policy marks a shift away from global engagement. Can We Trust America? looks at the uncertainties for Australia as questions arise about the commitment of its closest ally. Michael Wesley argues that a shift towards US unilateralism may pose a crucial dilemma for Australia. Felicity Ruby delves into the revealing history and future of Australia–US partnerships on intelligence and military surveillance. Brendan Taylor argues that the United States’ role in Asia may not be as vital as we think. Kelly Magsamen offers insight into how the United States sees its role in Asia into the future. John Blaxland on how to form meaningful and intimate ties with our Pacific island neighbours. PLUS Helen Clark on Samantha Power’s The Education of an Idealist and the role of foreign policy advisers. Nick Bisley on Rory Medcalf’s Contest for the Indo-Pacific and Australia’s role in this new regional order. Jacinta Carroll on Brian Toohey’s Secret and the making of Australia’s security state. Christopher Kremmer on K.S. Komireddi’s Malevolent Republic and what the rise of India means for Australia. Correspondence on AFA7: China Dependence.

“The uncomfortable reality is that preserving an exclusive sphere of influence in the South Pacific is not going to be possible against a regional power that is far stronger than any we have ever confronted, or even contemplated.” HUGH WHITE The sixth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines Australia’s struggle to retain influence among its Pacific island neighbours as foreign powers play a greater role and as small nations brace for the impacts of climate change. Our Sphere of Influence explores the security challenges facing nations in the southern Pacific and whether Australia will need new approaches to secure its relations and interests. Hugh White argues that Australia will be unable to keep China out of the Pacific and must urgently renew its defences. Jenny Hayward-Jones examines whether Scott Morrison’s Pacific “step-up” can reverse Canberra’s declining diplomatic influence. Katerina Teaiwa explores how Australia’s climate change policy undermines ties with its island neighbours. Sean Dorney reports from inside the forgotten Australian colony of Papua New Guinea. Euan Graham proposes how to address Australia’s knowledge gaps about the Chinese leadership and military. Elizabeth Becker reflects on the unique challenges for female foreign correspondents. PLUS Correspondence on AFA5: Are We Asian Yet? from Clive Hamilton, Barry Li and Linda Jaivin.

The latest issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the rising tensions over the future of Taiwan as China’s pursuit of ‘unification’ pits it against the United States and US allies such as Australia. The Taiwan Choice looks at the growing risk of a catastrophic war and the outlook for Australia as it faces a strategic choice that could reshape its future in Asia. Hugh White on why war over Taiwan is the gravest danger Australia might be facing Lead essays exploring Australia’s military capacity to enter a war over Taiwan; the significance of the strategic choice that lies ahead for Australia; and the view from Taiwan Award-winning writer Richard Cooke on foreign policy jargon PLUS correspondence on AFA13: India Rising? Australian Foreign Affairs is published three times a year and seeks to explore – and encourage – debate on Australia’s place in the world and global outlook.

“China is an emergent empire of a kind never seen before . . . It’s not a gunpowder or dreadnought battleship or B-52 bomber empire. It’s an information empire, propelled by commercial interests.” JOHN KEANE The eleventh issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the rise of authoritarian and illiberal leaders, whose growing assertiveness is reshaping the Western-led world order. The March of Autocracy explores the challenge for Australia as it enters a new era, in which China’s sway increases and democracies compete with their rivals for global influence. John Keane probes Western misconceptions about China to show why its emerging empire might be more resilient than believed. Natasha Kassam & Darren Lim explore how Xi’s China model is reshaping the global order. Sam Roggeveen considers Washington’s stance on China and whether Biden can seek to restore US primacy. Linda Jaivin discusses how Australia might use its strengths as a middle power to combat China’s influence. Huong Le Thu suggests how Australia can improve its South-East Asian ties. Kate Geraghty lays bare the horrific impact that war can have on women. Melissa Conley Tyler reveals the crippling impact of Australia’s underfunding of diplomacy. PLUS Correspondence on AFA10: Friends, Allies and Enemies from Charles Edel, Rikki Kersten and more.

“These are anxious times. Not since early 1942 have Australians felt so in need of allies, yet been so unsure of their major ally … Canberra is eagerly, even desperately, looking for new protectors.” HUGH WHITE The tenth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the alliances, blocs and rivalries emerging across the Asia-Pacific as nations adjust to the changing balance of power. Friends, Allies and Enemies considers Australia’s diplomatic options as loyalties shift in an increasingly turbulent region. Hugh White argues that Australia’s plan for countering Chinese ambitions – building new alliances in Asia – is destined to fail. Rory Medcalf considers the potential of multilateral forums such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Karen Middleton examines how foreign aid and diplomacy can strengthen ties with our neighbours. Patrick Lawrence calls on Australia to bid farewell to US influence in the Asia-Pacific and embrace an Asian-led regional order. Allan Behm proposes a bold new Pacific aid donors’ conference led by Australia. Primrose Riordan details the rapacious effects of China’s new security law in Hong Kong. Timothy J. Lynch examines the challenges ahead for the United States. Renée Fry-McKibbin surveys capitalism’s failure in the midst of COVID-19. Sophie Chao reports on the West Papuan struggle for independence. PLUS Correspondence on AFA9: Spy vs Spy from John Hewson, Jenny McAllister, Lesley Seebeck and more.

The latest issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines Australia's evolving ties with the United States as the power balance in Asia changes and as Washington continues to face bitter domestic divides. We Need to Talk about America looks at the future of the alliance in an era in which the US's global role and stature – which once seemed so constant – are becoming less stable and less certain. Essays include: Brothers in arms: Why the alliance is making Australia less safe Shaky ground: Can the US alliance survive China and MAGA? Freedom fight: Why the world still needs a strong United States The view from America: Australia, Uncle Sam needs you PLUS correspondence, The Fix, and more

“Australia’s climate and energy policy is a ‘toxic time bomb’ . . . Now Morrison, feeling the heat from Australia’s allies, from growing numbers in the business community and from a majority of voters, needs to work out how he will handle that bomb.” MARIAN WILKINSON The twelfth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the growing pressure on Australia as global and regional powers adopt tough measures to combat climate change. Feeling the Heat looks at the consequences of splitting from the international consensus, and at how a climate pivot by Canberra could unlock new diplomatic and economic opportunities. Marian Wilkinson probes how Canberra is responding to international pressure on climate and asks if we are at a political tipping point. Wesley Morgan warns that Australia’s climate policy is undermining our Pacific relationships and proposes a path for rebuilding trust. Richard Denniss and Allan Behm expose Australia’s efforts to obstruct international climate action and to support fossil fuel exports. Amanda McKenzie uncovers how Australia’s climate policy impedes its diplomacy and how to address this malaise. Anthony Bergin and Jeffrey Wall outline a solution to Australia’s dwindling business ties in the Pacific. Hugh Riminton examines the future contours of the Asian Century. Michelle Aung Thin discusses the brutal Myanmar coup and its impact on the nation. PLUS Correspondence on AFA11: The March of Autocracy from Fergus Ryan, Kevin Boreham and Yun Jiang.

Could India, an emerging giant and growing geopolitical player, change the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific? “As Australia’s relationship with China has soured, probably irretrievably, India has emerged as the great new hope.” MICHAEL WESLEY The thirteenth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the future of India, a rising giant whose unsteady growth and unpredictable political turns raise questions about its role and power in Asia. India Rising? explores the challenge for Australia as it seeks to improve its faltering ties with the world’s largest democracy, a nation whose ascent – if achieved – could reshape the regional order. Michael Wesley interrogates the future for India and Australia – the likely challenges, opportunities and threats facing the two nations. Aarti Betigeri explores the fast-growing Indian Australian community and its potential to reshape Australia’s ties to India. Snigdha Poonam examines rising anti-China sentiment in Narendra Modi’s India. Harsh V. Pant reveals how India views Australia and how Canberra can supercharge relations. James Curran uncovers the origins and ambitions of the Australia–Indonesia security deal under Paul Keating. Elizabeth Buchanan looks at Australia’s options as China expands its Antarctic operations. Jane Perlez analyses Australian dread about China and whether the fears are overinflated. PLUS Correspondence on AFA12: Feeling the Heat from Paul Mitchell, Elizabeth Boulton, Nicky Ison and Daniel Wild.

What challenges does Australia face as the world's great powers battle for a foothold in the Pacific? The latest issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the growing rivalry and increasing tension in the Pacific as it becomes a stage for a great-power contest to gain influence and a strategic position in the region. Girt by China looks at the challenges for Canberra as it seeks to strengthen ties with Pacific island countries and to counter moves by China to extend its reach into the waters off northern Australia. Essays include: Great games: The new battle for the Pacific Island diplomacy: China's growing Pacific reach Northern exposure: How to defend Australia's maritime approaches Next deal: Inside Beijing's bid to sign new Pacific pacts PLUS correspondence, The Fix, and more

How has Russia's invasion of Ukraine changed the international security, economic and political terrain? “The war in Europe will leave China in a stronger position, as it unifies the West. This is something Canberra has largely failed to recognise.” Geoff Raby The sixteenth issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines the global upheaval caused by the war in Ukraine, which has heightened the tensions between democracies and authoritarian states, and has led to a more assertive Europe that could represent a new force in world affairs. The Return of the West looks at the challenges for Australia in the post-invasion international order and the changing role of economics, military power, cyber capabilities and strongman rulers. • Geoff Raby explores the impact of the war in Ukraine on the world order and what this means for Australia's foreign policy. • Jeffrey Wilson looks at how Australia can secure its economy against the growing threats to the global trade system. • Laura Tingle reports from Europe on whether it can shake off its lethargy to become a great global power. • Gwynne Dyer analyses what Taiwan can learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine about how to defend itself against China. • Geraldine Doogue examines the challenges facing Penny Wong as Australia's new foreign minister. • Melissa Conley Tyler and Cherie Lagakali propose a partnership with the Pacific to boost the region's digital capabilities. PLUS Correspondence on AFA15: Our Unstable Neighbourhood from Huong Le Thu, Marc Purcell, Michael Wesley and more.

The latest issue of Australian Foreign Affairs examines China's ultimate goals as an emerging superpower, including the extent of its territorial ambitions. New Domino Theory looks at Australia's place in China's long-term plans and at the threat – if any – that Beijing poses to Australian security, politics and society. Essays include: Red peril: What does China want from Australia? – James Curran Uncommon destiny: How Beijing sees the world – Merriden Varrall Agents and influence: Inside the foreign interference threat – Yun Jiang No daylight: Behind the Labor–Coalition consensus on AUKUS and China PLUS correspondence, The Fix, and more