0:00 -- Intro.1:26-- About the podcast sponsor: The American College of Governance Counsel.2:13 -- Start of interview.3:47 -- Ker's "origin story." 7:41 -- His history with the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (AmCham).9:42 -- About his book “Selling to China. Stories of Success, Failure and Constant Change.” (2023). "We felt that it was important to remind people why we're doing this in the first place, you know, what's good about our relationship with China. We wanted bring the commercial issues back into the conversation."13:31 -- On the current idea of “uncoupling” or “de-risking” the US economy from China."I think it is good to talk about 'de-risking' rather than 'decoupling'." "I don't think a complete decoupling is realistic and it's certainly not in the interest of either side. But I think the de-risking term is helpful, in the sense that it aims at communicating the intent. {The intent] here is not to punish China or isolate China or decouple from China, but it is to protect our interests, whether they're military interests or strategic economic interests."16:46 -- On whether the US policies and sanctions towards China are effective."The narrative is that the export controls and sanctions and de-risking coming out of Washington DC is simply pushing China to be more self-sufficient." "This has to be seen as a temporary measure, that gives us time to resolve the actual conflicts that exist."21:21 -- On the US responding with its own industrial policy to catch up with China (e.g. in batteries and EVs). "We've got to be careful not to slip into outright protectionism and allow this to change who we are as a country and how we've been successful as an economy." "[I]f we get into a situation where we are indeed trying to limit China's economic rise, and literally keep China economically contained, that is a dangerous path, and it's a bad narrative, because it inevitably leads to conflict.""I'm basically conservative when it comes to economic issues and fiscal policy, but I have actually been saying for quite a long time that the US needs to get over its aversion to industrial policy and put some planning in place."30:38 -- On China’s private sector."[B]eijing actually kept a remarkably light hand [in the development of the internet industry]. I give the Beijing policymakers full credit there for knowing that they needed to stay out of the way and let that happen." "Now we've seen the pendulum swing back the other way." "Jack Ma was going around visiting countries and he would almost be treated like a head of state. I think Jack Ma must have, because his company is publicly listed in New York, he might have confused himself with a Western CEO. He's not. China is China and the West is the West, especially in the tech sector. So yeah, he's been disciplined as have some other tech leaders."36:21 -- On the fate of TikTok in the US.40:38 -- On the recent APEC meeting in SF, and his take on Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping meetings. "I put it in the category of huge success that the meeting happened, that Xi Jinping actually showed up." "It's critical that Xi and Biden meet face-to-face because of the Chinese political system, it is so concentrated at the top."46:09 -- On the risks of a military conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. "We should not underestimate [China's] willingness to take the island and take it by force. I think at some point you have to just take them at their word. If you listen to the domestic media and domestic speeches that Xi and others make in China, it's quite clear that they're highly motivated to take the island and willing to." "[But] I don't think it's imminent, mostly because of the difficulty of taking the island and of the probability of success on the Chinese side.""I think the probability of an accidental conflict [is] high. And until the agreement of the last week or so, the ability to de-escalate and de-conflict, low." "In other words, without that military-to-military hotlin