56 min listen
Discussing Our Roku Valuation with Nick Grous and Andrew Kim
Discussing Our Roku Valuation with Nick Grous and Andrew Kim
ratings:
Length:
30 minutes
Released:
Jul 21, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode
Description
Please note: as of 3/31/22, ARK’s clients own greater than 1% of the shares outstanding of Roku Inc.
We believe there’s a major shift taking place in the TV ecosystem in terms of people moving from linear (cable) TV to connected (streaming) platforms and it’s only going one direction. The advertising world hasn’t quite caught up; In Roku’s first quarter earnings call, CEO Anthony Wood reiterated that US audiences spend 46% of their TV time on streaming while advertisers spend only 18% of their TV ad budgets on streaming.[1] We believe there is an enormous investment opportunity here, and in today’s episode we are going to be talking about why we believe Roku, the only purpose-built operating system for TVs today, is positioned to be a prime beneficiary of the shift from linear to connected TV. Tune in today to hear our predictions for the next five years, the factors required for our thesis to crystalize, exciting developments taking place at Roku, and more! You can read the full Roku valuation blog here.
“The way that we think about Roku in this new digital TV ecosystem is as the new cable box.” — @GrousARK
Key Points From This Episode:
An overview of what Roku is.
How the TV ecosystem has shifted.
The drop that we expect to see in the number of households using cable/broadcast (linear TV) in the US in the next five years.
The number of households that we expect to be using connected TV (streaming) in the coming years.
The mismatch between advertising dollars spent and engagement in the streaming space.
A comparison between the amount of advertising dollars spent on connected TV and linear TV.
How we predict global and US advertising spending will change in the next few years.
Three key variables that our assumptions about Roku’s future depend on.
How we expect Roku’s daily hour stream per account metrics to change by 2026.
Roku’s approaches to driving revenue dollars.
Live sports; what we believe to be the linchpin holding the linear TV advertising space together.
The growth that we expect to see in global digital advertising spending by 2026.
Why we think connected TV targeting can improve but linear TV targeting cannot.
Our calculations of Roku’s gross platform monetization rate.
Benefits of the Roku Pay offering (that we are monitoring very closely).
DISCLOSURE
The forecasted performance and price estimates herein are subject to revision by ARK and provided solely as a guide to current expectations. There can be no expectation that the specific security will achieve such performance or that there will be a return of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, AND PRESENT MANY RISKS AND LIMITATIONS. The recipient should not consider these estimated prices alone in making an investment decision. While ARK believes that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, no representations are made as to their accuracy, and there can be no assurance that such forecasts or returns will be achieved by the specific security.
The recipient is urged to use extreme caution when considering the forecasted performance, as it is inherently subjective and reflects ARK’s inherent bias toward higher expected returns. Any higher returns should be viewed as a measure of the relative risk of such investments, with higher forecasted performance generally reflecting greater risk. There is no guarantee that any results will align with the forecasted performance, and they might not be predictive. Some or all results may be substantially lower than projected results and, as with any investment, it is possible that you could lose money.
FORECASTED performance results (single security model simulation forecasts) have many inherent limitations. A recipient account might or might not hold this single security, and the account performance will be affected in proportion to its holding size and the amount of price fluctuation over time. No representa
We believe there’s a major shift taking place in the TV ecosystem in terms of people moving from linear (cable) TV to connected (streaming) platforms and it’s only going one direction. The advertising world hasn’t quite caught up; In Roku’s first quarter earnings call, CEO Anthony Wood reiterated that US audiences spend 46% of their TV time on streaming while advertisers spend only 18% of their TV ad budgets on streaming.[1] We believe there is an enormous investment opportunity here, and in today’s episode we are going to be talking about why we believe Roku, the only purpose-built operating system for TVs today, is positioned to be a prime beneficiary of the shift from linear to connected TV. Tune in today to hear our predictions for the next five years, the factors required for our thesis to crystalize, exciting developments taking place at Roku, and more! You can read the full Roku valuation blog here.
“The way that we think about Roku in this new digital TV ecosystem is as the new cable box.” — @GrousARK
Key Points From This Episode:
An overview of what Roku is.
How the TV ecosystem has shifted.
The drop that we expect to see in the number of households using cable/broadcast (linear TV) in the US in the next five years.
The number of households that we expect to be using connected TV (streaming) in the coming years.
The mismatch between advertising dollars spent and engagement in the streaming space.
A comparison between the amount of advertising dollars spent on connected TV and linear TV.
How we predict global and US advertising spending will change in the next few years.
Three key variables that our assumptions about Roku’s future depend on.
How we expect Roku’s daily hour stream per account metrics to change by 2026.
Roku’s approaches to driving revenue dollars.
Live sports; what we believe to be the linchpin holding the linear TV advertising space together.
The growth that we expect to see in global digital advertising spending by 2026.
Why we think connected TV targeting can improve but linear TV targeting cannot.
Our calculations of Roku’s gross platform monetization rate.
Benefits of the Roku Pay offering (that we are monitoring very closely).
DISCLOSURE
The forecasted performance and price estimates herein are subject to revision by ARK and provided solely as a guide to current expectations. There can be no expectation that the specific security will achieve such performance or that there will be a return of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
FORECASTED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND HIGHLY SPECULATIVE, AND PRESENT MANY RISKS AND LIMITATIONS. The recipient should not consider these estimated prices alone in making an investment decision. While ARK believes that there is a sound basis for the forecasts presented, no representations are made as to their accuracy, and there can be no assurance that such forecasts or returns will be achieved by the specific security.
The recipient is urged to use extreme caution when considering the forecasted performance, as it is inherently subjective and reflects ARK’s inherent bias toward higher expected returns. Any higher returns should be viewed as a measure of the relative risk of such investments, with higher forecasted performance generally reflecting greater risk. There is no guarantee that any results will align with the forecasted performance, and they might not be predictive. Some or all results may be substantially lower than projected results and, as with any investment, it is possible that you could lose money.
FORECASTED performance results (single security model simulation forecasts) have many inherent limitations. A recipient account might or might not hold this single security, and the account performance will be affected in proportion to its holding size and the amount of price fluctuation over time. No representa
Released:
Jul 21, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode
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