A key question for many interventions' impact is how long the intervention changes some output counterfactually, or how long the intervention washes out. This is often the case for work to change policy: the cost-effectiveness of efforts to pass animal welfare ballot initiatives, nuclear non-proliferation policy, climate policy, and voting reform, for example, will depend on (a) whether those policies get repealed and (b) whether they would pass anyway. Often there is an explicit assumption, e.g., that passing a policy is equivalent to speeding up when it would have gone into place anyway by X years.[1] [2] As people routinely note when making these assumptions, it is very unclear what assumption would be appropriate.In a new paper (my economics "job market paper"), I address this question, focusing on U.S. referendums but with some data on other policymaking processes:Policy choices sometimes appear stubbornly persistent, even when they become politically unpopular or [...] ---Outline:(02:20) Overview of Results and Methods(06:23) Notes Particular to the EA Community(06:27) Policy Changes Seem to Matter (Much) Longer than EAs Have Assumed(07:34) Neglectedness Matters(08:02) Comparing Persistence: Can We Compare Policy to Other Social Changes?The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. ---
First published:
November 2nd, 2023

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jCwuozHHjeoLPLemB/how-long-do-policy-changes-matter-new-paper

Linkpost URL:https://zachfreitasgroff.com/FreitasGroff_Policy_Persistence.pdf
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.