Nuclear winter is a topic that many have heard about, but where significant confusion can occur. I certainly knew little about the topic beyond the superficial prior to working on nuclear issues, and getting up to speed with the recent research is not trivial. Even then there are very large uncertainties around the topic, and different teams have come to different conclusions, which are unlikely to be resolved soon. However, this does not mean that we cannot draw some conclusions on nuclear winter. I worry that the fact there are still uncertainties has been taken to the extreme that nuclear winters are impossible, which I do not believe can be supported. Instead, I would suggest the balance of evidence suggests there is a very serious risk a large nuclear exchange could lead to catastrophic climate impacts. Given that the potential mortality of these winters could exceed the direct deaths, the [...] ---Outline:(01:11) Headline results, for those short on time(10:29) The case for concern: Firestorms, plumes and soot(17:05) Complexities and disagreements(21:23) Point one – How many detonations can we expect?(29:08) Point two – How do detonations translate into stratospheric soot?(33:22) The anatomy of the disagreements(38:51) Synthesis---
First published:
August 25th, 2023

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pbMfYGjBqrhmmmDSo/nuclear-winter-reviewing-the-evidence-the-complexities-and
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