134: Why 2023’s “Rolling Recession” is Almost Impossible to Predict w/Liz Ann Sonders

11: Migration, Inflation, and Why Big Cities Are Losing Their "Desirable" Status: Over the past two years, home prices have looked as if they’re never going to drop. With record-low interest rates, a newly formed remote work culture, and millennials at peak homebuying age, who would have thought that lower home prices would come so soon. Although traditionally affordable areas of the United State are still teetering on “overpriced” status, many high-priced markets are seeing negative population growth, and home prices are getting hit as a result.This is just one of the topics we touch on in our in-depth interview with Redfin’s Deputy Chief Economist, Taylor Marr. Taylor, like our own Dave Meyer, spends his days digging through the most important real estate data around. Whether it’s housing market updates, inflation and interest rate changes, or migration patterns, Taylor is on it long before you read one of his team’s excellent articles. As a key member of one of the leading companies by On The Market

58 min listen

4: The Fed’s Plan for Future Interest Rates w/The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos: The Fed and interest rates—what one does, the other follows. Over the past two years, we’ve seen interest rates crash to all-time lows, only to skyrocket back up to decade-long highs at the start of this month. This turbulence has swept the legs of many prospective homebuyers and has caused the housing market to go from red-hot to lukewarm in only a matter of weeks. What’s causing these rapid fluctuations and are rising interest rates the new norm?There’s arguably no one better to ask this question than Nick Timiraos, reporter and economic correspondent at The Wall Street Journal. Nick keeps a tight pulse check on The Federal Reserve at all times. In his newest book, Trillion Dollar Triage, he discusses why The Federal Reserve made the shocking moves they did in 2020, and how their decisions affect every American today.Dave Meyer and James Dainard use today’s interview with Nick as a chance to ask th by On The Market

61 min listen

1: Welcome to On The Market!: Level up your real estate investing with a weekly dose of entertaining takes and expert analysis on the trends, data, and headlines shifting today's economy, so you can invest with confidence. by On The Market

3 min listen

6: The Not-So-Scary Way to Start Buying Real Estate in 2022: Maybe you wanted to know how to invest in real estate back in early 2020. You took some time to educate yourself by listening to podcasts and reading books. Then you went and got preapproved, found yourself an agent, and were ready to start hitting the pavement, searching for your first real estate deal. While you were on your hunt for profitable houses, the world started to shut down. Everyone was forced inside, the real estate market locked up, and you thought “maybe I should wait this one out.” Now, it’s 2022, and the housing market is arguably the most competitive it has been in decades. You missed your shot, right? Now you can never invest in real estate…or so you think. Dave Meyer, On The Market Host and VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets, is here with Henry Washington, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke to argue that you should still be investing in real estate. Even with rising interest rates, high home prices, and by On The Market

62 min listen

9: 3 Types of Real Estate Deals that Work in ANY Market Condition: Home flipping, wholesaling, and BRRRR-ing rental properties are all solid options in the real estate investing space. But, as most experienced investors know, different markets favor different strategies. In some markets, flipping outweighs the risk of renting out a property, while in others, something like the BRRRR strategy is a no-brainer. In 2022, after two years worth of wild appreciation and huge rent raises, which strategy is the best for investors?We couldn’t have this sort of debate without our buy-and-hold expert, Henry Washington, our master house flipper, James Dainard, and our wholesale addict, Jamil Damji. Together, they each bring their own unique outlook on these strategies and give advice on which is the best to use for certain types of deals. Henry, James, and Jamil bring real-life deals to debate, and you’ll hear how experts analyze properties, even with just basic information.If you’ve enjoyed listen by On The Market

64 min listen

7: The Economic “Power Shift” Happening in 2022: Gas prices, unemployment rates, and home sales have been headlining topics for the past two years. Every other day we’re hearing about a record surge in a certain type of asset, leaving many investors wondering when this market madness will come to an end. To help us understand a bit more about the economic indicators affecting our daily lives, we invited Planet Money and The Indicator’s Stacey Vanek Smith on the show.Stacey has an enormous presence in the economic podcasting world and has helped pioneer some of the most-listened-to content about what drives and divides our economy. Today, she talks to Dave Meyer and Kathy Fettke about the most important economic indicators that investors should watch out for. Thankfully, she brings news not just about interest rates and inflation—Stacey has some genuinely positive news about the post-pandemic economic recovery. One of the key topics of this show is how work-from-home and remote lifestyl by On The Market

62 min listen

2: What the Average Homebuyer Can Learn from House-Hungry Investors: The housing market relies on many things: market sentiment, Federal Reserve policy, supply, demand, interest rates, inflation—the list goes on and on. For most homebuyers, it may seem almost impossible to crack the code of when (or if) it makes sense to buy a home or rental property. But, as we’re seeing housing market turbulence, we’re also seeing investor activity skyrocket. What do experienced investors know that we don’t?Joining us for the first episode of On The Market is VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets, Dave Meyer, real estate investing expert Henry Washington, builder, buyer, and landlord, Kathy Fettke, home flipping extraordinaire James Dainard, and arguably the biggest (and best) wholesaler in the United States, Jamil Damji.This week’s episode focuses on 2022 housing market predictions, where each guest gives their take on where the housing market may end up at the closing of this year. We also touc by On The Market

61 min listen

28: Inflation Falls, Inventory Drops, and Why is Multifamily Such a Mess?: Single-family vs. multifamily investing. We can go on this debate for days. Small-time investors favor single-family rentals due to their low barrier to entry and ease of management. Big players and passive investors far prefer multifamily thanks to its scale and ability to bring in some serious cash flow. But, it seems that many multifamily investors have lost their way. For the past two years, buying almost any multifamily property was considered a good investment, but now things are starting to shift.Today we bring you two separate deals, one from Henry Washington and the other from Kathy Fettke. One is a single-family flip, and the other is a “passive” multifamily buy-and-hold. You’ll hear why one of these deals got ditched while the other should fetch a handsome return. This top-level analysis can help you debate future deals, as some properties look far better on paper than in real life.We’ll also touch on by On The Market

54 min listen

54: The Deals We're Doing in 2022 (and How Much They'll Make): BRRRR investing, house flips, five-figure rental properties, and silicon prairie dogs are all part of this On the Market episode. We asked our panel of expert guests to bring in some of the juiciest deals they’ve been doing so we can compare and contrast which real estate investing strategies are working best in today’s housing market. Surprisingly, even with this panel of investing all-stars, we’ve got deals and steals costing only $70K, but also home-run rentals in the seven and eight-figure price points.But this isn’t just a bragathon—our expert guests walk through exactly how they picked up these insane deals for cheap, the strategies they’re using to cash flow from day one, and how they’ll use their tax benefits to pay for the next round of real estate deals! If you want to know how to make six-figures worth of equity for free, build a “bulletproof” BRRRR strategy, or ensure you turn a profit on your next real estate d by On The Market

47 min listen

8: 2022 Housing Market Recap: Will It Get Worse Before it Gets Better?: When we talk about recession indicators, we usually talk about things like housing price drops, mass layoffs, heavy unemployment, and overleveraged consumers. It seems like every time you turn on the news, someone is touting a return of the great recession, without much to back it up. Since the housing market plays such a pivotal role in the economy, we decided to have a housing market recap with our expert investors Henry Washington, James Dainard, and Kathy Fettke, to see if their metrics point to a recession.In a strange time like 2022, almost every real estate investor is starting to get nervous. Home prices continue to rise, and inventory is almost as low as it’s ever been, but at the same time, high interest rates don’t make buying expensive homes attractive anymore. Is there still any juice left to squeeze in this year’s housing market, or are we on a fast track to foreclosures, price cuts, and peak buying o by On The Market

57 min listen

18: Hosts vs. Hotels: Is There Still Room in The Short-Term Rental Market?: Short-term rental investing has been one of the most profitable, fastest-growing types of real estate investing strategies in decades. When the events of 2020 happened, most vacation rental owners thought that their passive income stream had been shut off, only for the exact opposite to happen in a big way. With low interest rates, investors were scooping up short-term rentals every second they could, and their occupancy rates just kept on increasing. But is all of that about to change?We’re back with another bonus episode of On The Market where Dave does a data-first deep dive into what’s happening with the short-term rental market. From occupancy rates to second home sell-offs, and hotels regaining their prestige—everything you wanted to know about vacation rental investing is packaged up for you in this short-term rental recap.Dave also gets into the recession data behind short-term rental investing and why by On The Market

31 min listen

17: Foreclosure Fears, “Emotional” Equity, and Big Buying Opportunities: Will housing prices drop in 2022? There may seem like an obvious answer to this question, “of course with interest rates rising housing prices will drop.” But, that’s not exactly what the data shows, especially when you take into account that 2022 is not a normal housing market by any means. We had high demand, which is starting to cool, but housing prices are still far from affordable. And with so many homeowners enjoying huge equity boosts, is there even a possibility that foreclosures could fill the supply gap?Instead of postulating about what will or won’t happen, we brought on an industry expert who can give a data-first decision on which way the housing market will move. Rick Sharga, EVP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM, knows the data. He spends the majority of his waking hours scanning through copious amounts of housing market information so he can give investors and real estate professionals a true, unbias by On The Market

60 min listen

14: The Crash Predictors Are Wrong, Here’s Why with Logan Mohtashami: The housing market is confusing, to say the least. In 2020, at the start of lockdowns, nearly everyone you spoke to had the opinion that the housing market was headed straight for a crash. Not only was this wrong, but it was the opposite of what the data was saying. While mainstream news outlets and “2008 crash bros” were painting a picture of foreclosures, price drops, and bottomed-out demand, Logan Mohtashami was singing a far different tune. Logan had been looking diligently at the data (like he does most days over at HousingWire) and he saw patterns that didn’t at all reflect the last recession. Instead, Logan predicted a runup in prices, hot buyer demand, and very low rates of foreclosures. In a time when almost everyone with a public voice was calling for an apocalyptic housing scene, Logan predicted much differently. Now, two or so years later, we can see just how right he was. We’ve brought this beloved data- by On The Market

61 min listen

13: Why Investors MUST Change The Way They Buy Real Estate in 2022 by On The Market

62 min listen

10: How to Prepare for a Recession (and Profit!) in 2022: One man knows how to prepare for a recession arguably better than anyone else. He’s been able to build wealth during multiple different economic cycles, not only surviving but thriving in the process. With decades of experience in real estate investing, advising, and mentoring, J Scott, author of Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing, stands as a testament that not everyone gets washed away when an economic tsunami comes crashing down.We spend some time asking J about how we got to the current economic stage we’re in, what the economy looks like today, and how we can prepare ourselves for the future of high interest rates, falling asset prices, and real estate steals of the century. If you’re feeling anxious about investing in 2022, J Scott is the guest you should listen to. For our due diligence portion of the show, we’ll be asking James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke all about recession prep and rebalancing your real e by On The Market

64 min listen

12: Inflation & Interest Rate News: The Ugly Truth Investors NEED to Know by On The Market

35 min listen

3: 8 Homerun Housing Markets of 2022 (and Beyond!): When choosing a 2022 housing market strategy, you’ll need a few key ingredients. Things like job growth, population growth, affordability, and new construction are just a few ways to see whether or not a real estate market will stand the test of time. As the housing market begins to see some stalled demand and we enter into potentially “bubblicious” territory, the smart investor begins looking for the best place to park their money for the long term.Back again for our second episode of On The Market is VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets, Dave Meyer, buy-and-hold addict, Henry Washington, head honcho of wholesaling, Jamil Damji, and our resident Californian, Kathy Fettke. This time, we’ll be touching on the latest data and news claiming that the US is starting to enter into a housing market bubble and how demand has sharply declined since interest rates have begun to rise.We also share our favorite 2022 housing market picks for by On The Market

61 min listen

22: Will 3D Printed Houses Solve the US Housing Crisis?: Your next property purchase might just be a 3D-printed house. Don’t believe us? With lower housing costs, immediately replaceable/printable parts, and homes that can be built in six months (or less), traditional real estate developers may find themselves in a pinch when trying to compete against these perfect printable properties. With a huge inventory shortage and housing crisis throughout the United States, 3D-printed homes may just be the ultimate solution nobody believed could happen.As a true believer, Zachary Mannheimer, CEO and founder of Alquist 3D, knew that 3D printed houses would sooner or later become the future. With labor and material costs skyrocketing and real estate development becoming eye-wateringly expensive, Zachary became keen on finding an affordable solution. His team now has plans to build 200+ homes for underserved communities and has already begun expansion across the eastern United States.And this isn’ by On The Market

50 min listen

5: Cash Flow is Starting to Disappear: Is It Even Worth Chasing?: Cash flow vs. appreciation has been a fiercely fought debate between many real estate investors for decades. Cash flow investors love to tout the fact that consistent rental property profits allow you a life of freedom, while appreciation investors argue that cash flow doesn’t build wealth, it merely keeps you treading water. There’s arguably no better panel to ask about this topic than America’s best wholesaler, investor, and flipper trio—James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke. James, Jamil, and Kathy have a view on the appreciation vs. cash flow topic that most investors don’t possess. All three of these investors have bought, sold, and held real estate before, during, and after the great recession, meaning they aren’t subject to the 2020 and beyond “hot housing market” stigma many new investors fall into. They’ve seen what a good, bad, and ugly housing market can look like, and, unsurprisingly, they reach almost by On The Market

60 min listen

33: Could Build-to-Rent Investing Deliver a Deathblow to Multifamily?: It’s a little strange how long it took build-to-rent real estate investing to catch on. For decades, landlords were used to buying older homes, many without renovations, and renting them out to whoever needed housing. This trend has continued up until today as numerous buy-and-hold investors buy homes well past their prime. It seems almost natural to think that building brand new homes would allow you to get the highest rent price, and that’s why so many investors, like Fundrise’s CEO Ben Miller, are so gung-ho about build-to-rent rentals.Ben Miller knows the housing market/real estate industry inside and out. He’s helped over 350,000 real estate investors passively make profits through Fundrise’s simple and groundbreakingly open investing platform. Any investor, accredited or not, can now get a piece of the pie on a cash-flowing property, even if they don’t have enough money to buy it themselves.Since Ben is at the by On The Market

56 min listen

23: 2022 Recession Recap: Falling GDP, High Inflation, & More Uncertainty Ahead: The US economy has seen a couple of recessions over the past two decades. The most brutal one being the great recession, which remains an anomalous event. Fast forward twelve or so years, and we entered into the 2020 recession, one of the fastest recessions ever recorded that resulted in a massive run-up of stock, crypto, and real estate prices. Now, as a recession looms on the horizon, Americans are struggling to figure out whether or not we’re about to hit a short-term speed bump or a long-term depression.So many different economists, newscasters, and financial bloggers love to debate whether or not we’re truly in a recession. By definition, we should be, but the experts are slowly taking their time, trying to calculate the true impact of this latest economic cycle we’ve entered. But does being in a recession really matter? Yes, recessions affect almost every aspect of financial life. Labor slows down, c by On The Market

41 min listen

16: What to Invest in During a Recession (2022 Edition) by On The Market

41 min listen

15: Renting vs. Buying a House: Which Makes More Sense in 2022?: Renting vs buying a house. It’s an easy decision. If you have the option to buy, you should buy. Shouldn’t you? That line of thinking, according to Ken Johnson, real estate economics expert, can cost you a lot of money. His team at Florida Atlantic University, along with other data–first economic experts, have spent a lot of time studying whether or not it makes more sense to rent or buy a home.Ken breaks down how most Americans have gotten the rent vs buy debate all wrong, how renters can beat homeowners to long-term wealth, and which housing conditions lead to better deals. We also bring in our expert panel of guests to get their take on whether or not owning is a smarter choice than renting. You’ll hear multiple opinions on how you can make a more lucrative decision on your first primary residence and whether being a “renter-landlord” makes sense in 2022.Surprisingly, in a time when more people are being forced into re by On The Market

72 min listen

40: Property Product-Market Fit: The Most Important Metric You’ve Never Heard Of: Housing demand has caused home prices to explode over the past two years. But, even as interest rates rise, the Fed tries to curb inflation, and would-be-homebuyers enter back into the renter’s market, there still isn't enough land to go around. For developers like Tommy Beadel, this is a good problem to have. On one hand, tailor-made homes for new homebuyers sell out quickly, but without a ton of deals to go around, where do you go to find good dirt?Tommy is the CEO of Thomas James Homes, rebuilding experts in the Seattle, SoCal, Silicon Valley, Denver, and Phoenix markets. They do what most flippers won’t—buying old, often outdated homes, tearing them down, and rebuilding them to fit today’s standard. Doing this allows them to sell at the highest price to a consumer that only wants the best and latest home to buy. They skirt the line between new development and renovating/rehabbing homes, but this niche by On The Market

54 min listen

48: Why Volatile Housing Markets Are Looking Attractive to Investors: Today’s housing market has a lot of people scared, and investors are worried as well. Home prices are starting to slump, inflation is hitting decade-long peaks, and interest rates have turned everyone’s cash flow cushions into break-even deals at best. Is there any respite in the wild real estate market? And why do top investors seem so excited about it? We’re back on another correspondents episode of On the Market, where Professor Dave has asked students Henry, James, and Kathy to bring in their favorite real estate market news for show-and-tell. These stories hit different aspects of the housing market, showcasing the cracks forming in the overall economy and what investors need to be prepared for to react. We talk about how home flips are being discounted across expensive coastal cities, why rent price growth is starting to stall, and how buyers got their negotiation power back.We’ll also be touching on the recent by On The Market

51 min listen

24: Climate Change: Why Top Investors Are Paying Attention (and You Should Too): Climate change and real estate. Most people would say that they’re related, but not in a substantial way. We all know that homes can flood, catch fire, or be blown away from a tornado, but how many real estate investors are looking at the climate risk data before making a real estate-related decision? Institutional investors have been using climate change data to make educated decisions for decades, so why aren’t we doing the same?Cal Inman, lecturer at UC Berkeley and principal over at ClimateCheck, saw that real estate developers were regularly looking at climate data to make decisions. As a small landlord himself, he struggled to find this same type of data for his residential properties. As fire and flooding became more prevalent throughout the United States, Cal knew that this data was imperative for homeowners, not just large-scale investment firms. Now, thanks to ClimateCheck, homeowners, buyers, an by On The Market

48 min listen

19: Is The Stock Market Drop an Opportunity for Real Estate Investors?: Does a stock market crash affect real estate? We’ve seen home prices hit record growth over the past two years, with a slight slowdown happening right now. But nothing in the real estate market compares to the stock market selloff that has happened over the past six months. Index funds are down over twenty percent year to date, tech companies are quickly losing valuation, and the stock market doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Is this an opportunity for real estate investors?Instead of letting landlords try to explain how equities work, we brought on Clay Finck from the Millennial Investing podcast to help educate us on what a good (or bad) buy looks like. Clay has spent years learning about value investing from the best stock trader of all time, Warren Buffett. He’s designed his portfolio to model the trading techniques Buffett engineered and thinks that this latest dip poses some interesting opportunities fo by On The Market

75 min listen

26: Rates Drop Below 5%, Opendoor’s $62M Mistake, and Jamil’s Dead Deal: Interest rates are dipping below five percent, hedge funds and institutional investors are starting to sell off their homes, and inexperienced syndicators are getting stuck with bad deals. Is this the everyday investor’s version of a miracle? Nope, it’s just another week in the wild 2022 housing market! Joining us is the entire On The Market panel to talk about which up-to-date, hard-hitting stories affect investors the most.To start, we’ll talk about Invitation Homes, one of the most prominent institutional real estate companies, and how they’re being accused of using unpermitted work to renovate their recent acquisitions. Within the same vein, Opendoor, another institutional investor, was fined a whopping $62M for “deceptive marketing”, but did they really make promises they couldn’t keep? Don’t worry, this isn’t an entirely iBuyer-only episode.Our last two stories cover commercial real estate and interest rates by On The Market

58 min listen

35: The Unforgiving Impact That The New Home “Sell-Off” Could Cause: For the past couple of years, new construction homes were the envy of the neighborhood. They had brand new granite countertops, walls without holes, and sometimes a garage door! In 2020 and 2021, homebuyers were happily bidding over asking price just to get a new home, even if that meant missing appliances or garages that couldn’t even close. Now, builders are offering incentives and slashing prices to get buyers through the door. What happened?What comes up must come down, and this rings true in the 2022 housing market. New homes couldn’t be built fast enough last year, but now, builders are trying to liquidate their homes as quickly as possible. But this doesn’t affect us everyday homebuyers—right? Not quite. These price cuts and dwindling demand could feed an even more gruesome economic beast that many of us aren’t prepared for.On this Friday episode of On The Market, Dave is flying solo as he gives us the data and by On The Market

29 min listen

31: Wall Street: Huge Threat or Harmless Hedge Funds?: Home prices are a big part of the housing market. But not as big as interest rates. As the Federal Reserve sets out to “kill the economy” with rising mortgage rates, researchers like John Burns dig through the data to find out what real estate investors can do to take advantage. John isn't a beginner in the real estate space—his consulting company has been doing this type of work for two decades, providing some of the biggest real estate investors with the most up-to-date information.John isn’t optimistic about this housing market. The data he’s been collecting shows that home prices could see dramatic drops over the next couple of years and that the housing supply problem may only get worse. But, he also sees opportunities for investors that could take the place of the appreciation gains we got all too used to. John’s team participates in over nine hundred consulting studies a year, meaning if there’s one person who knows what’s h by On The Market

52 min listen

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134: Why 2023’s “Rolling Recession” is Almost Impossible to Predict w/Liz Ann Sonders

134: Why 2023’s “Rolling Recession” is Almost Impossible to Predict w/Liz Ann Sonders

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