Letters to the Editor

FromEye On The Market

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Letters to the Editor

FromEye On The Market

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Length:

16 minutes

Released:

Jun 14, 2023

Format:

Podcast episode

Description

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.

Released:

Jun 14, 2023

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (94)

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

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Private equity forecast: plenty of dry powder by Eye On The Market
6 min listen
Short People: the market rebound, and what comes next: Michael discusses how short covering, rather than real money, has driven the fastest recovery on record following a bear market, and looks ahead at slowing earnings growth. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purpo... by Eye On The Market
7 min listen
The song remains the same: Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The song remains the same. Michael reviews current market dynamics, walks through four investment strategies that have performed well over multiple cycles as this one enters its latter stages, and... by Eye On The Market
9 min listen
The Arc and the Covenants: Michael Cembalest takes a unique look at US states, cities, and counties using his signature comprehensive debt ratio. While municipalities have time to address underfunded obligations, some face difficult trade-offs. Legal precedent shows that bondholde... by Eye On The Market
9 min listen
The Jaws of Victory: Michael Cembalest explores ways in which the current administration could negatively impact financial markets in the midst of an environment of generally rising growth, profits and capital spending with guest speaker, Jack Bartling, an international affa... by Eye On The Market
19 min listen
Pascal's Wager: Michael Cembalest discusses his annual energy paper, Pascal’s Wager, the argument that belief makes more sense than disbelief when the worst outcome is a total loss. He tackles the reality behind climate goals & decarbonization, electric vehicles, academ... by Eye On The Market
30 min listen
America, First: Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market: America, First. Michael reviews the strength of US equity markets so far this year in the context of fading fiscal and monetary stimulus, signs of fatigue in US tech stocks and potential ramificat... by Eye On The Market
11 min listen
Warren Peace by Eye On The Market
11 min listen
The Verdict: In this month’s podcast, Michael looks at the midterms: GOP gains in the Senate, an historic loss in the House given economic and market conditions, and what it means for investors. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market comment... by Eye On The Market
10 min listen
The Late Show: Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market, The Late Show. He considers why despite strong US earnings growth and global expansion, equity markets remain flattish in 2018. He tackles the drivers of somewhat muted equity returns by focusing ... by Eye On The Market
10 min listen
The State of States, 2018: In this Eye on the Market, Michael provides an update on the credit risk of US states based on their unfunded pension and retiree healthcare obligations. Please see the podcast video or visit jpmorgan.com/eotm for the slide referenced. *Disclaimer: This ... by Eye On The Market
9 min listen
Good luck with that: In this year’s Holiday Eye on the Market, Michael records a note to his spouse on her father, the 2020 US Presidential election, and what might be the widest ideological divide in 100 years. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / marke... by Eye On The Market
10 min listen
Chinese handcuffs: Michael Cembalest discusses his latest Eye on the Market. Topics include the underappreciated risks of Chinese retaliation against US companies doing business in China, and how a full-blown trade war and military conflict are far from inevitable given th... by Eye On The Market
8 min listen
Covid-19 Update: Michael discusses updates on the Covid19 crisis, including the potential path of decline in US infection rates, the impact of the new fed facilities, the difference between virus and serology testing, and the new vaccine efforts underway. by Eye On The Market
8 min listen
Blinded by Science: the US recovery, virus surge and scientific trust gap: US recovery marches on; why deaths are diverging from sharply rising infections; the American scientific trust gap vs the rest of the world; energy paper client Q&A. by Eye On The Market
12 min listen
How business cycles end: implications for investors: A brief note on the latest price action in equity markets, how business cycles end, and how markets are being left to fend for themselves without central bank intervention for the first time in 20 years. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informat... by Eye On The Market
6 min listen
The Armageddonists!: The Armageddonists and the price of fame. by Eye On The Market
11 min listen
Quiet Flows the Don: For the first time in 100 years, a challenger unseated an incumbent President at a time of strong economic and market tailwinds. However, the election delivered a clearer referendum on the President himself than on policy issues dividing Democrats and Re... by Eye On The Market
14 min listen
Listen when people tell you who they are: Trump has been telling us who he is all along; I should have listened. A story in pictures.*Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary purposes only, and is a J.P. Morgan Asset Management communication on behalf of J.P. Mo... by Eye On The Market
9 min listen
The room where it happens: Michael recaps the self-inflicted wounds of the Section 301 tariffs, and recaps his meetings in DC with a group of Congressmen to discuss debt, deficits and financial markets. *Disclaimer: This podcast is intended for informational / market commentary pu... by Eye On The Market
8 min listen
The Decline of Western Centralization, Part II by Eye On The Market
19 min listen
COVID-19 update: infection rates, medical research and equity markets: Michael discusses the coronavirus latest infection rates by country and latitude, anti-viral and vaccine efforts, and what equity markets are pricing in. by Eye On The Market
13 min listen
Ready or Not: The US prepares to reopen: An update on the COVID-19 crisis as the US prepares to reopen despite having one of the highest infection rates in the world. Additional topics: monoclonal antibodies and anti-viral trials; the growing gap between markets and the economy; S&P 500 earning... by Eye On The Market
14 min listen
Stargazing: Tenth Annual Eye on the Market Energy Paper: While COVID temporarily reduced global CO2 emissions to 2006 levels, a faster and broader renewable energy transition will be needed to result in more permanent reductions. This year’s topics include decarbonization of steel; the amount of energy storage... by Eye On The Market
17 min listen
COVID Research: Charts of the Week: US infection plateau; Liz Cheney; Hong Kong’s reaction to a mini second wave; Phase I Oxford vaccine antibody response; US spending and hospitalization trends; an update on infections in US hotspots and Latin America; Government march-in rights and herd ... by Eye On The Market
12 min listen
So Long Yellow Brick Road: An update from the front lines of the Trade War, with a focus on implications for investors by Eye On The Market
10 min listen
Red Med Redemption: Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growth by Eye On The Market
12 min listen
War of the Worlds: In this special holiday edition, Michael explains how an evening at home went awry: how a discussion about China and Hong Kong morphed into a chart war about Trump, Hoover, Taft, Rachel Maddow and Anderson Cooper. by Eye On The Market
11 min listen
Berning Man: An update on the Democratic Primary. Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was expected jus... by Eye On The Market
21 min listen
Fed Zeppelin: Is the Fed making a mistake?: The Fed halted tightening and propelled equities to their fastest recovery ever following a bear market. This decision was made despite the lowest unemployment rate in 40 years. Does that make sense? Also, a possible deal with China. *Disclaimer: This po... by Eye On The Market
10 min listen

More Episodes from Eye On The Market

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Cicadian Rhythms: Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source mod... by Eye On The Market
24 min listen
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video here by Eye On The Market
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Electravision: This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. View video here by Eye On The Market
22 min listen
Five Easy Pieces: Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities. View video here by Eye On The Market
19 min listen
Medical Complications: This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but w... by Eye On The Market
12 min listen
Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises: A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video here by Eye On The Market
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Outlook 2024 Deep Dive: The Fats Dominoes: The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video here by Eye On The Market
18 min listen
Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk: Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprise... by Eye On The Market
24 min listen
It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review: A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View video here by Eye On The Market
21 min listen
Not That 70’s Show: Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video here by Eye On The Market
26 min listen
New York, Just Like I Pictured It: Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry dive... by Eye On The Market
23 min listen
What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World: I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real worl... by Eye On The Market
18 min listen
The Rasputin Effect: Global resilience to higher rates View transcript with chart references by Eye On The Market
21 min listen
Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride: The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs by Eye On The Market
12 min listen
The Places We Could Go: Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess... by Eye On The Market
16 min listen
Frankenstein’s Monster: Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market ... by Eye On The Market
19 min listen
Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence: Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand ou... by Eye On The Market
19 min listen
Winter Heating: The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans. by Eye On The Market
16 min listen
American Gothic: The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it by Eye On The Market
9 min listen
The End of the Affair: The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins by Eye On The Market
27 min listen
Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck: Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule by Eye On The Market
16 min listen
A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving: In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which ... by Eye On The Market
15 min listen
Reruns: Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with li... by Eye On The Market
16 min listen
Arrested Development: Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force by Eye On The Market
14 min listen
On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS: Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bi... by Eye On The Market
19 min listen
Independence Days: Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industry by Eye On The Market
18 min listen
The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen: Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long one by Eye On The Market
23 min listen
The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating: Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new build... by Eye On The Market
16 min listen
Bear Market Barometers: The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated. by Eye On The Market
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Letters to the Editor

Letters to the Editor

Description

Titles in the series (94)

More Episodes from Eye On The Market