The Republican presidential primary is shaping up to be a case of déjà
vu. 

In 2015 into 2016, Donald Trump gained an early lead and never looked
back. The hype about a well-funded, twice-elected Florida governor
proved to be illusory. Most of Trump’s opponents waited around for
someone else to take him down until it was too late. Chris Christie, one
of the few Trump opponents who had sharp words for Trump, was too
moderate for Republicans. Trump dominated the only thing that seemed to
matter: the media’s attention. Most of the GOP’s elite donors, opinion
pages, and elected leaders rallied in opposition to Trump (often
privately) and prayed that some meteor-like event would destroy his
candidacy 

So far in 2023: 1) Ron DeSantis may be reprising the role of Jeb Bush;
2) Nikki Haley and Mike Pence (so far) are reprising the role of Trump’s
milquetoast challengers, who occasionally swat at him but rarely damage
him; 3) Chris Christie is reprising the role of … Chris Christie; 4)
Trump is once again flooding social media, email inboxes and cable news
with his own content; and 5) many Republicans are once again looking to
the sky for meteors, this time in the form of criminal indictments.

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook newsletter

Raghu Manavalan is the host and senior editor of POLITICO's Playbook
Daily Briefing.
Jenny Ament is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.