On the afternoon of Jan. 6, 2021, as pro-Trump rioters were ransacking
the Capitol in Washington, prosecutors in Manhattan gathered on Zoom to
discuss Donald Trump's bookkeeping practices. 

More than two years later, while state and federal criminal
investigations into Trump’s culpability for the events of Jan. 6
continue, it is the Manhattan probe that is set to produce the first
Trump indictment — as soon as this week.

While we don’t know for sure what crime — or crimes — that Manhattan DA
Alvin Bragg will charge Trump with, the weight of available evidence
suggests Trump will be charged with violating a New York state law
against falsifying business records. 

Specifically, Bragg is apparently preparing to argue that Trump created
fictitious records during the scheme to pay off Stormy Daniels in
October 2016 after she threatened to expose their alleged affair.

The return of the hush money caper to the white-hot center of American
politics has a lot of people scratching their heads and puzzling over
some basic questions: Of all the Trump scandals, why is this the one
that’s going to get him arrested? Didn’t authorities already rule out
any culpability for Trump in that case? And isn’t Bragg’s legal theory
hopelessly flawed?

To understand how one of the OG Trump scandals returned from the dead to
ensnare Trump seven years after Daniels got her $130,000, we need to
review the case’s complicated history.

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Raghu Manavalan is the host and senior editor of POLITICO's Playbook
Daily Briefing.
Jenny Ament is the executive producer of POLITICO Audio.