The Wizards of Armageddon

FromArms Control Wonk

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The Wizards of Armageddon

FromArms Control Wonk

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Length:

42 minutes

Released:

Jul 1, 2022

Format:

Podcast episode

Description

Jeffrey and Aaron walk through a piece of foundational field canon, The Wizards of Armageddon by Fred Kaplan, discussing its coverage of institutional and personal decisionmaking, picking apart the concepts of deterrence and compellence, and discussing the seemingly crystalized debate on the same core tenets, decades after the initial events. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!

Released:

Jul 1, 2022

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

The nuclear weapons, arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation podcast. Companion to the popular Arms Control Wonk blog (www.armscontrolwonk.com). Hosted by Jeffrey Lewis & Aaron Stein.

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Visualizations and Verification: James Palmer of the UK's Atomic Weapons Establishment joins the ACW trio to talk about the importance of 3D modelling and data visualization, including recreations of North Korea's Punggye-ri nuclear test site and virtual reality training simulations.... by Arms Control Wonk
34 min listen
Mort Halperin and the Okinawa Decision: Mort Halperin a giant as an academic and a policy practitioner. And he's working on a memoir that covers his sixty year career in foreign policy. Mort played an important role in the US decision to revert Okinawa to Japanese control without nuclear... by Arms Control Wonk
44 min listen
The Future of Opens Skies: What is the future of the Open Skies Treaty? The Arms Control Wonk trio talk the Open Skies Treaty, the conspiracy theories that now permeate the debate about Russian aircraft, and why the treaty matters. Support us over at ! by Arms Control Wonk
31 min listen
China's 70th National Day Parade: Everybody loves a parade, especially one with missiles and drones. Superproducer Scott joins Jeffrey and Anne to discuss the new hardware displayed in early October, and how great it is to watch the . Scott has waited seven years for this... by Arms Control Wonk
53 min listen
An Iranian Missile Attack on Saudi Arabia?: Iran may have just rocketed oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The ACW trio asks what else is new, after time spent analyzing Qiam strikes on Riyadh. With tensions increasing in the Gulf, and questions about a potential US strike to punish Iran for... by Arms Control Wonk
40 min listen
North Korea's New SLBM: The Pukguksong-3: It is finally here! Two years after seeing posters for the Pukguksong-3 during Kim Jong Un's visit to the Chemical Material Institute of the Academy of Defense Science in 2017, the North Korea has finally tested the next generation of its... by Arms Control Wonk
43 min listen
North Korea's Mysterious Engine Test: Sohae is open for business! The ACW Gang talks North Korea's recent engine test at Sohae and marvels (again) at the power of satellite imagery. Was this test Kim's "Christmas Gift" to Trump? Or just a stocking stuffer? Support us over at ! by Arms Control Wonk
17 min listen
Renewed Nuclear Testing in... the U.S.?: John Hudson and Paul Sonne at the Washington Post broke the story that Trump administration officials have discussed conducting additional nuclear tests in the United States. Jeffrey and Anne discuss why this is a bad idea, how this would... by Arms Control Wonk
31 min listen
Investigating PS752 with Open-Source Intelligence: After the on U.S. forces in Iraq, the IRGC appears to have accidentally shot down a Ukrainian airliner flying out of Tehran. The Iranian government took about 3 days to admit that it was shot down, initially denying that it was shot down. Prior to... by Arms Control Wonk
32 min listen
Tailkits and the Turks: US Nuclear Weapons in Turkey: The New York Times reported recently that US officials are considering removing US nuclear weapons from Turkey. Aaron knows a bit about this, so Jeffrey called in from his car on the road to San Francisco, and Anne called in from a foggy Monterey to... by Arms Control Wonk
33 min listen
Iran's Fifth Step: The ACW crew discusses the JCPOA...again. Iran has announced its 5th step away from the JCPOA. The trio discusses what that means, what it doesn't mean, and where we go from here. And, for your ease of reference, Iran's Five Steps: May 2019: No... by Arms Control Wonk
20 min listen
Iran's Space Launchers and Solid Missiles: Iran tested a satellite launch vehicle, and it failed. But this isn't a reason to cheer. Iran showed off a lot of goodies this month, pointing to an active solid-propellant missile program and has no said a future satellite launch is going to use a... by Arms Control Wonk
32 min listen
Iran's Four Steps: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has announce yet another "step" away from the JCPOA, the fourth this year. As Iran resumes feeding UF6 into some of the cascades at the Fordow Enrichment Plant, Anne and Jeffrey discuss the steps that led us... by Arms Control Wonk
22 min listen
The 2020 North Korean Military Parade: On 10/10/2020, the 75th Anniversary of the Founding of the Worker's Party of Korea, the DPRK showed of a lot of missiles. Again. In addition to all the stuff they've been testing over the last two years, they introduced a new, oddly shaped... by Arms Control Wonk
42 min listen
The Donald and The Nuclear 7: Parting Shots: Nancy Pelosi has indicated that Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has assured her that there are safeguards against an "unstable president" accessing "the launch codes" and launching a nuclear strike. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss... by Arms Control Wonk
24 min listen
Iran’s Missile Strikes in Iraq: As it turns out, the ACW trio thinks that Iran’s missiles are accurate. Super accurate. As Anne flies across the United States, Aaron and Jeffrey spoke about Iran’s ballistic missile strikes Ain Assad Air Base in Iraq, why the strike on Erbil may... by Arms Control Wonk
47 min listen
Mysterious Explosions in Iran: In a cross-over podcast with FPRI’s Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Fabian Hinz, a frequent guest on the podcast, about the recent explosions in Iran and what open source intelligence has revealed about the two incidents. You can find the... by Arms Control Wonk
24 min listen
Making the Easy Stuff Hard: Re-joining the JCPOA: Biden campaigned on rejoining the JCPOA, but some of that enthusiasm has dried up since he took office. Aaron and Jeffrey debate what's going on, strategies for negotiating re-joining the JCPOA, and the fallacy of letting the perfect get in the way... by Arms Control Wonk
32 min listen
Russia's Nudol Anti-Satellite Missile Test: In mid-April, Russia tested a direct ascent anti-satellite missile (DA ASAT), the Nudol/PL19, against a point in space. Anti-satellite weapons are an old favorite of the pod, so Anne, Aaron, and Jeffrey meet to discuss the history of anti-satellite... by Arms Control Wonk
33 min listen
The U.S.'s Post-INF Ballistic Missile: Launch a missile, get a pod, post-INF Treaty edition. On December 12, 2019, the U.S. Air Force and the Strategic Capabilities office tested a "prototype conventionally-configured, ground-launched ballistic missile" from Vandenberg AFB. The trio... by Arms Control Wonk
20 min listen
The PLA Rocket Force's Rapid Expansion: China's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has been very busy in the last few years, testing new high-tech missiles and standing up new launch brigades. Superproducer Scott joins Jeffrey and Anne to talk about reports of the PLARF... by Arms Control Wonk
36 min listen
At The Brink: How do we step back from the brink and reduce the very real threat that nuclear weapons continue to pose? Nuclear weapons continue to impact people's lives, even if they are sometimes treated as historical threats of a prior era. Jeffrey and Aaron... by Arms Control Wonk
43 min listen
The Deal: Now that a few episodes have dropped, Anne and Jeffrey talk about Jeffrey's new project, The Deal. Jeffrey chronicles how researchers like Corey Hinderstein chased down data before satellite imagery was so easily available, Wendy Sherman's... by Arms Control Wonk
33 min listen
New Year, New START, New Facilities in Iran: And a new logo by Arms Control Wonk
39 min listen
North Korea's Biggest ICBM Yet: Jeffrey and crew have been busy at work modelling the giant ICBM that the DPRK paraded in October 2020, as well as tracing out its possible industrial provenance. Aaron and Jeffrey talk through modelling methodologies, North Korean industrial... by Arms Control Wonk
48 min listen
Renewed Nuclear Testing in China?: The Wall Street Journal reported that "" based on the State Department's 2020 Annual , but that is not quite what the report actually says. Jeffrey and Anne sit down to talk about open-source tracking of the Lop Nur nuclear testing site, the... by Arms Control Wonk
28 min listen
Boiling Fish at Yongbyon: Looks like Yongbyon is running a little hot. The IAEA has announced that it believes the DPRK is conducting a plutonium reprocessing campaign at Yongbyon. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss why the DPRK would want to do this. What could the mystery be?... by Arms Control Wonk
33 min listen
What's Up with Turkey's S400?: Turkey previously announced that its S400 air defense regiment would be activated and in service by the end of April, 2020, after its delivery from Russia in 2019. Since it is now May 2020, with no S400 deployment in sight, Aaron and Scott sat down... by Arms Control Wonk
48 min listen
The Deal Episode 1: The Revelation: In 2002, Corey Hinderstein, a young research analyst, follows a hunch after a routine press conference in Washington, D.C. The results of her scavenger hunt sparked a diplomatic crisis that stretched more than a decade, lasted through two... by Arms Control Wonk
29 min listen
Tracking the PLA Rocket Forces: The People's Liberation Army Rocket Forces used to be a nearly opaque organization to all but a few open-source researchers. Now, increased availability of satellite-imagery and public media enable open-source exploitation and tracking of PRC missile... by Arms Control Wonk
34 min listen

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Iran's Once in a Lifetime Moment: not complying with the IAEA And you may find yourself in a war in another part of the world And you may find yourself making a metaphor about an automobile And you may find yourself enriching your uranium stocks, and building reactors And you may ask... by Arms Control Wonk
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Russia Buys North Korean Missiles: Shoigu went shopping. Russia is buying KN-23 and KN-25 missiles from North Korea and launching them in support of its invasion of Ukraine. Imagery from on the ground clearly shows North Korean style solid-propellant missiles. Jeffrey and Aaron... by Arms Control Wonk
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Shenanigans in Novaya Zemlya: Looks like everyone is preparing for a party. Between Russia's potential un-signing of a nuclear test treaty, threats to test "if the United States does," and refurbishments at Novaya Zemlya, things aren't looking great for the longevity of... by Arms Control Wonk
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Kim Jong Un's Excellent Adventure: Sam Lair joins the podcast to talk about Kim Jong Un's recent whirlwind tour of the North Korean Defense Industrial Base with Jeffrey and Scott. If you're into missiles, geolocation, and machine tools (and, if you listen to this podcast, you probably... by Arms Control Wonk
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Oppenheimer: Jeffrey is joined by the illustrious Kelsey Atherton to discuss Christopher Nolan's film Oppenheimer, as well as the history and legacy of the titular man himself. Kelsey and Jeffrey dive into the choice to focus on Oppenheimer's own security... by Arms Control Wonk
54 min listen
Hiroshima 2023: Jeffrey is back from Hiroshima, where he participated in a Track 2 nuclear dialogue. The outlook for near-term arms control is still grim. Jeffrey and Aaron unpack the G7 statements on disarmament that the Japanese representatives wanted to re-affirm,... by Arms Control Wonk
34 min listen
What the F*** Do They Think the Russians are Going to Shoot at Them?!: Germany has a gap that needs to be filled in the face of Russian threats. But this time it isn't Fulda, it is....the exoatmospheric layer of ballistic missile defenses? Jeffrey and Aaron try to understand Germany's decision to buy the very fancy... by Arms Control Wonk
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Failure to Launch: Jeffrey is back from Japan and North Korea's satellite-turned-submarine is back from the bottom of the ocean! North Korea's failed Chollima-1 space launcher and its payload, the Malligyong-1, failed to reach space on May 30. Jeffrey and... by Arms Control Wonk
26 min listen
Shangri-la Dialogue with Ankit Panda: Ankit Panda joins Jeffrey by the every so fancy pool at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where they talk about competing speeches and messaging, the views on US-China competition from Southeast Asia, and about how Jeffrey didn't make any new... by Arms Control Wonk
34 min listen
The CAT I is Out of the Bag: Ukraine is getting the SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow cruise missile, and that's raising a whole lot of questions about MTCR guidelines Jeffrey and Aaron talk about the history of the Missile Technology Control Regime, what it was meant to originally... by Arms Control Wonk
38 min listen
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FINALLY. North Korea's Solid ICBM: The Hwasong-18: FINALLY. After almost a decade of hinting and teasing and parading fake empty canisters, North Korea has debuted its long-awated solid propellant ICBM. And the team have some questions about where the construction and testing sites were...... by Arms Control Wonk
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Iran, the IAEA, and the Kingdom: The IAEA is doing a great job with the s**t we're handing them. A very jetlagged Jeffrey joins Aaron to talk about the IAEA and the very positive role that Director General Rafael Grossi has played in trying to hold together the nuclear situation with... by Arms Control Wonk
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The Actual Demise of New START: New START has been in peril for years. The first episode of the pod was about the INF Treaty being in danger, and here we are, 8 years later, with almost no arms control treaties left. Maybe it is time to rename the pod Arms Race Wonk, because the... by Arms Control Wonk
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Another North Korean Missile Parade: Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott say the unthinkable: we're a little tired of the parades. But we're glad the youthes are still ordering pizza and crowding around the computer to watch. North Korea paraded at least 15 ICBMs, including 4 that were... by Arms Control Wonk
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One of Them is Wrong About That: Both plan on going first, but... President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea is being piled on for discussing South Korean pursuits of nuclear weapons (although what he said *exactly* was distorted a little). In the face of increasing pressure to respond... by Arms Control Wonk
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Detecting Missile Launches with Ionospheric Disturbances: Tyler Nighswander and Mike Nute have developed an incredible tool for detecting long-range missile and space launches by processing and visualizing ionospheric disturbances in GPS data. In one of the most fascinating and technically complex... by Arms Control Wonk
37 min listen
How Sting Likes to Test: Jeeze that was a big missile. North Korea has tested another large ICBM, and this one was (another) doozy. Jeffrey and Aaron talk through modelling this missile, the potential theft of missile tech from Ukraine, Kim Jong Un's Bring Your Daughter to... by Arms Control Wonk
27 min listen
New New START or New Finish?: The Biden administration has been working to re-kindle New START talks with Russia, while working to deter Russian WMD use in Ukraine, in an era that increasingly appears to be about risk management instead of risk reduction. How do you restart... by Arms Control Wonk
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The Lake-Bed Missile: Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a missile get a pod Launch a... by Arms Control Wonk
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Another Crazy Train: The Russian invasion of Ukraine is giving people brain worms. Multiple terrible reports, citing oSiNt aNaLyStS, have recently been released and grossly overexaggerated the risk of nuclear weapons use around Ukraine. These reports, particularly about... by Arms Control Wonk
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The Janky Triad: Does North Korea have a triad? Perhaps a boostrapped, janky triad? How mature is their arsenal at this point? North Korea lobbed a Hwasong-12 over Japan after a week of smaller missile tests, and sparked a testy exchange of missile tests and aircraft... by Arms Control Wonk
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Stealing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: What the heck is going on with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Planet? Aaron and Jeffrey walk through the safety situation, the open source assessments of what is going on, and what appears to be a Russian strategy to....steal a power plant? Links of... by Arms Control Wonk
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Rules for Testing a Nuke: Why isn't North Korea testing nukes? What are the signals and signs that precede a test? Jeffrey and Aaron talk testing indicators, the logistics of detonating a nuclear device in North Korea, and the proper use of the Chatham House Rule... The... by Arms Control Wonk
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The Wizards of Armageddon

The Wizards of Armageddon

Description

Titles in the series (100)

More Episodes from Arms Control Wonk

Related podcast episodes