The one-year anniversary of the ongoing war in Ukraine saw a number of related developments beyond the battle zone. First came the visit of President Joe Biden to Kyiv, where he reiterated the motto of ‘As long as it takes” for American support to the Ukrainian war effort, underlining that the US is in it for the long haul. Then President Vladimir Putin, in his state of the nation speech announced that Russia was “suspending” its participation in the New START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), the last of the major treaties in place to curb an unfettered nuclear arms race. Next China released what has been variously described as a “peace plan” and a “position paper” on bringing an end to the Russo-Ukraine war.
So what are the implications of each of these developments? Will China’s peace plan be taken seriously by the West? Will Biden’s domestic opponents allow his administration to funnel endless billions into this war? Will Russia’s ‘suspension’ of its participation in New START destabilise a fragile strategic balance?