Probability theory seems an attractive foundation for rationalism—but it is not up to the job. https://metarationality.com/probabilism   Leaving the casino - Probabilistic rationalism encourages you to view the whole world as a gigantic casino—but mostly it is not like that. https://metarationality.com/probabilism-applicability   What probability can’t do - If probability theory were an epistemology, we’d want it to tell us how confident to be in our beliefs. Unfortunately, it can’t do that. https://metarationality.com/probability-limitations   Mentioned in this episode:   Probability Theory Does Not Extend Logic https://metarationality.com/probability-and-logic   "Bayes: A Kinda-Sorta Masterpost" by Nostalgiabraist https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/161645122124/bayes-a-kinda-sorta-masterpost   The “Potential Problems” section of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy article on “Bayesian Epistemology” https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/epistemology-bayesian/#PotPro   You can support the podcast and get episodes a week early, by supporting the Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/m/fluidityaudiobooks   If you like the show, consider buying me a coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/mattarnold   Original music by Kevin MacLeod.   This podcast is under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial International 4.0 License.