Let’s start with Joe Biden. 

A midterm is a referendum on the president. By all historic measures,
voters should have handed Biden’s party a massive rebuke. Inflation is
at historic levels, crime is up, Biden’s approval is underwater,
Democrats have one-party control. The party of recent presidents in
similar circumstances lost between 40 and 63 House seats.

And yet here’s where things stand this morning:

— In the House, Republicans are expected to gain control the chamber,
but well short of both historical averages and pre-election predictions.
Addressing supporters early this morning — hours after Republicans
thought they would have victory in hand — Kevin McCarthy could only
promise, “When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority.” (Like
his prior prediction that Republicans would gain 60 seats, that, too,
has failed to pan out.)

— In the Senate, the outcome hinges on Nevada, where incumbent Sen.
Catherine Cortez Masto fell behind her GOP challenger Adam Laxalt this
morning, and Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is ahead by
a hair but the race is likely headed for a runoff on Dec. 6. Republicans
need to win both races to take control of the Senate. (Wisconsin and
Arizona haven’t been called, but the incumbents — Republican Ron Johnson
and Democrat Mark Kelly, respectively — are ahead in both states.)

Many of the (plausible) outcomes predicted by top GOP officials didn’t
materialize. There was no massive shift of the Hispanic vote toward the
GOP. There was no surge of hidden Trump voters. There was no widespread
takeover of deep blue House territory. There was no expansion of the
Senate map into New Hampshire, Colorado and Washington, where incumbent
Democrats cruised to reelection. The governor of New York won easily.

There was no red wave. 

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Raghu Manavalan is the Host and Senior Editor of POLITICO's Playbook
Daily Briefing.
Jenny Ament is the Executive Producer of POLITICO Audio.