Following setbacks in his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a partial mobilisation of ‘reservists’ to bolster the war effort. He launched his so-called special military operation with 150,000 troops, but now he plans to raise an additional 300,000 troops. Simultaneously, he also announced that referendums will be held in four Russia-held regions of Ukraine. If they vote yes, these Ukrainian territories will come under Russian sovereignty.
Both these developments have serious implications, in Ukraine and in Russia. The move toward partial mobilisation has triggered fierce protests in Russia. There have been dozens of anti-mobilisation rallies, enlistment centres have been set on fire, and there have been lengthy queues of cars – some as long as 18 km – at Russia’s border crossings, with people wanting to flee. Will this partial mobilisation enable Russia to reach its military goals? Or will it backfire? What do the referendums mean in terms of the possibilities of military escalation?