I spin a post on the Nezygar Telegram channel out to explore the current uncertain state of play over Ukraine, covering topics from the current US claims of what its intelligence says about both Zelenskyy and Putin to whether recognising the Donbas pseudo-states is being floated in Moscow precisely as an escape route.  In the second segment, I tackle some of the requests for predictions sent in by Patrons and offer what turn out to be some disappointingly unexciting responses. The article on Minsk II for the Council on Geostrategy is here.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/InMoscowsShadows)