Mike Leone goes solo this week, waxing philosophically over how we can apply Daniel Kahneman's new book, Noise, to NFL DFS. Mike outlines:-why simple models beat human beings at prediction-the danger of the "illusion of validity"-how human judgement improves the information we feed the Establish the Run projections-why we should trust those projections and not be variable or too active in tweaking our judgements on particular cases-in other words: try to treat decisions based on player ceiling, projected value and field exposure, and correlation - no on how a player makes us feel-getting outsized rewards for our patience in tournaments-targeting slow starters with high ceilings like George Kittle and AJ Brown-knowing when not to be patient and to adjust our priors quicklyFor a limited time, ETE listeners can receive 5% off of any Establish the Run premium package by using promo code "ETE": https://establishtherun.com/subscribe/