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Global Politics: The Opportunity for Mexico

Global Politics: The Opportunity for Mexico

FromThoughts on the Market


Global Politics: The Opportunity for Mexico

FromThoughts on the Market

ratings:
Length:
6 minutes
Released:
May 18, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

As we continue to track the trends of 'slowbalization' and the shift towards a multipolar world, Mexico stands out as an economy uniquely positioned to benefit from these changes. Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy Michael Zezas and Mexico Equity Strategist Nik Lippmann discuss.-----Transcript-----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. Nik Lippmann: I'm Nik Lippmann, Mexico Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Michael Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll be discussing the trend towards slowbalization within a multipolar world, a move that's been accelerated by recent geopolitical events, and in particular, the opportunity for Mexico and global investors. It's Wednesday, May 19th, at 1 p.m. in New York. Michael Zezas: So we've talked a lot on this podcast about the trends of slowbalization and the shift to a multipolar world. It's basically the idea that the globe is no longer solely organizing around the same political economy principles. And that, for example, the rise of China as an economic power with a political system that's distinctly different from the West, creates some barriers to economic interconnectedness. And we've talked a lot about how that can create new costs for Western companies and inflationary pressures, as all of a sudden you need to make investments, for example if you're Europe, to build an infrastructure to import natural gas from the U.S. so you don't have to buy it from Russia anymore. But this trend isn't all about creating headwinds and costs for the economy, we think there's opportunity, too. And there's regions that we think stand to benefit from an uptick in investment as American and European companies need to recreate that labor and market access in other parts of the globe. Mexico is one country that stands out to us, and so we want to speak with Nik Lippmann. Nik, can you tell us why you think Mexico is poised to benefit here? Nik Lippmann: So I'm sitting down in Mexico watching all this stuff play out from a number of different angles. And it's clear to me that Mexico will play a role. It's right next to the U.S., you have trade tariff protection, and multiple levels of rights are protected by the USMCA. And Mexico has advanced tremendously in terms of advancing the value chain and moving up in terms of complexity. So it's come a long way over the last sort of two decades. And today what we see in Mexico is really a strong ecosystem for electronics and cars and even some aerospace. When I look at this recovery, post-COVID in Mexico, I see kind of an average recovery, to be honest. But right below the headline number, we see something else going on. We see electronics growing 40%. Michael Zezas: So you mentioned a lot has changed in Mexico recently that makes this possibility more likely. What is it that changed? Why couldn't this have been a greater opportunity for Mexico earlier? Nik Lippmann: I think that after the trade tensions with China, the pandemic, we've just been getting, you know, higher freight costs. We've been getting a number of obstacles to the existing trade framework. So there are certain external policy factors that clearly play in and it's clear that the chip has kind of changed over the course of the beginning of this year and opened the eyes to some of the risks that could be emerging in other parts of the world. It's clear that Mexico's able and fairly high quantities of labor. There will be needs to educate and develop further infrastructure. But Mexico's position and its proven track record in terms of making electronics and cars. I think that can be expanded into other things. And we're seeing the early stages of that on the ground already today.Michael Zezas: So geopolitics is an obvious catalyst for Mexico to be a beneficiary generally. Specifically, what sectors of the economy in Mexico stand out to you as an opportun
Released:
May 18, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.