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End-of-Year Encore: Thematic Investing

End-of-Year Encore: Thematic Investing

FromThoughts on the Market


End-of-Year Encore: Thematic Investing

FromThoughts on the Market

ratings:
Length:
7 minutes
Released:
Dec 28, 2021
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

Original Release on August 12th, 2021: Investor interest in thematic equity products such as ETFs has rapidly surged, particularly among tech themes. Why the momentum may only grow.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets This week we are bringing you 4 encores of deep dives into different kinds of investing we consider at Morgan Stanley. Thanks to all our listeners for a great year and happy holidays!Graham Secker Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Graham Secker, Head of the European and UK Equity Strategy Team.Ed Stanley And I'm Ed Stanley, Head of European Thematic Research.Graham Secker And today on the podcast, we'll be talking about the continued interest in thematic investing in Europe. It's Thursday, August the 12th, at 3 p.m. in London.Graham Secker So, Ed, I really wanted to talk to you today because investor appetite for thematic related equity products such as ETFs, mutual funds and the like has grown to the point that thematics has actually been carved out from our traditional sector research at Morgan Stanley. So as head of the European Thematic Investing team, can you walk us through what's behind the increased interest in this area and how you see the thematic landscape evolving over the next couple of years?Ed Stanley Thanks, Graham. To understand thematics, first you have to look at the geographies. And when you do that, it's really a two-horse race. Of the $450 billion in global thematic mutual funds in June this year, 60% of that was in Europe. So the lion's share. And then there's the U.S., which is the second largest geography for thematic investing, but growing very quickly indeed. If you look in the US year to date, for example, there have been over 100 thematic ETF launches-- comfortably double the run rate of thematic starts in 2020. Once you've looked at geography, then you have to look at the landscape by theme. And this is where thematic investing gets really interesting. The breadth of and growth in thematic strategies is truly extraordinary. Fund starts are compounding over 40% over the last three years and inflows for those funds have seen high double digit, and even triple digit growth, so far this year. Most obviously, themes like genomics and eSports fall into that high growth category. We even saw a dedicated ETF launch in June this year, particularly trying to gain exposure to the metaverse, which is the first of its kind. So while we don't make explicit forecasts on where we think thematic investing is going to be in a one year view, the momentum is showing no signs of slowing down. In fact, quite the opposite.Graham Secker So with any number of themes to choose from, the world really is your oyster, I think. So how do you whittle down or cherry pick where you spend your time?Ed Stanley It's a great question and that's really my number one challenge. While we're never short of ideas, determining which theme is the zeitgeist of the day is absolutely critical. And to do that, our thematic research really hinges on two streams of analysis. On the one hand, demographic change and on the other, disruptive innovation. We believe that these two groupings and the subthemes therein hold the key to shifting future consumption patterns, which ultimately all investors need to be conscious of. But with that said, for most investors to be interested in a theme, it needs to be actionable within at least three to five years. Consequently, for a theme to work, investors need a relatively near-term catalyst. So when we're looking within disruptive innovation, for example, we need to think what's the catalyst to make investors care about this theme? Be that a product launch, start-up funding, falling technology costs, regulation or government policy. When you can twin up an interesting thematic idea with a catalyst, that's really where we focus our attention.Graham Secker Another question I want to ask is, how do you test the pulse of the market to determine what is a live thematic debate and where you think
Released:
Dec 28, 2021
Format:
Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

Short, thoughtful and regular takes on recent events in the markets from a variety of perspectives and voices within Morgan Stanley.