DB-Feb17,2021: Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro back to the Daily Briefing to provide analysis on the billowy price action in commodities. Greer looks at the market dynamics behind the rolling blackouts in Texas and discusses the oil curve steepening further into backwardation, allowing speculators to generate greater roll yield. Looking at similar phenomena in aluminum and copper, as well as the new relative highs in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ($OIH) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ($XLE), Greer surmises that we could be seeing the dawn of a new bull market in commodities, which may lead to a commodity supercycle. Bennington asks Greer about his latest longs, which include Freeport-McMoran ($FCX) and several homebuilding stocks. Greer explains why he thinks put options offer a low risk/reward even with the VIX barely above 20. In sum, Greer thinks the liquidity faucets from the Federal Reserve will continue to buoy all assets higher, so investors should own assets—not cash.
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