Paul Haenle on U.S.-China Relations in the Trump Administration

Xi and Biden Meet at APEC: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Dr. Ian Chong, non-resident scholar at Carnegie China and Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore. The two experts discuss President Biden and Xi's upcoming meeting on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco. The two also discuss the current state of U.S.-China relations and how the two powers are viewed from Southeast Asia as well as Dr. Chong's recent article published by Carnegie China, "Amid Contending Narratives, A Read on U.S. and PRC Messaging in Singapore." https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/08/amid-contending-narratives-read-on-u.s.-and-prc-messaging-in-singapore-pub-90942 Dr. Chong is a nonresident scholar at Carnegie China, where he examines U.S.-China dynamics in Southeast Asia and the broader Asia-Pacific. Chong is also an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. He re by China in the World

25 min listen

10 Years of US-China Trade Relations: To commemorate the 10th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Carnegie China is launching a series of lookback episodes, using audio clips from previous interviews to put current international issues in context. For the fifth and final episode in this series, the podcast looks back on 10 years of US-China trade relations. US-China trade ties have undergone significant changes since the launch of the China in the World podcast. In March 2012, the United States, the EU, and Japan filed a dispute at the World Trade Organization over China’s quota on exporting rare earth metals. That same year, China’s trade surplus with the U.S. reached an all-time high of $315 billion. In 2015, China became the largest bilateral trade partner of the U.S., surpassing Canada for the first time. In March 2018, the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports, kicking off the U.S.-China trade war. After bilateral nego by China in the World

36 min listen

Vietnam’s Multialignment Strategy: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Dr. Huong Le Thu, non-resident fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The two discuss Dr. Le Thu’s recent Foreign Affairs article on Vietnam’s “multialignment” strategy, the recent announcement of the U.S.-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, China-Vietnam relations, the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative, and how Southeast Asia is responding to China's Global Security Initiative, Global Development Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. Dr. Huong Le Thu, non-resident fellow with the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Most recently, she was a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and a member of the advisory board of the Griffith Asia Institute (GAI) at Griffith University. Her research interests include Vietnam’s defense by China in the World

57 min listen

China’s Law of the Sea: Amid renewed tensions in the South China Sea, Paul Haenle speaks with Dr. Isaac Kardon, Senior Fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Asia Program, about his new book, China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules of Maritime Order. The two discuss Kardon’s book, China’s approach to international maritime law, Beijing’s expanding port presence around the globe, the China-Philippines maritime standoff, and more. Isaac Kardon is a Senior Fellow in the Carnegie Endowment’s Asia Program. Isaac was formerly assistant professor at the U.S. Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute, where he researched China’s maritime affairs, and taught naval officers and national security professionals about PRC foreign and security policy. Isaac’s scholarship has centered on China’s development of maritime power, with research on China’s maritime disputes and law of the sea issues, global port development, and PLA overseas basing. His new book, China’s Law of the Sea: The New Rules by China in the World

47 min listen

What Comes Next for U.S.-China Relations?: In June, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded his first visit to China since the Biden administration entered office, and in July, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Climate Envoy John Kerry travelled to China to engage in discussions with Chinese officials. As the United States and China begin to restart high-level dialogues, there continue to be many unaddressed issues in the relationship, from trade to technology. Will the two sides be able to reopen military dialogues? Can they manage tensions over Taiwan? How will the bilateral relationship evolve ahead of the 2024 U.S. election? On this live Twitter Spaces event, Paul Haenle discusses all these issues and more with Evan Medeiros, Dennis Wilder, Amanda Hsiao, and Chong Ja Ian. by China in the World

64 min listen

The 200th Episode: Interviews with Carnegie Scholars: For the 200th episode of the China in the World podcast, Carnegie China looks back on interviews conducted over the last 10 years, highlighting discussions with scholars and experts from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Over the last 10 years, Paul Haenle has hosted dozens of conversations, conducted both online and at Carnegie's office in Beijing, with Carnegie scholars from across Carnegie’s six global centers, covering topics ranging from the U.S.-China relations and China-Russia relations to China-India relations and China-EU relations. by China in the World

44 min listen

The Ukraine War and China-Russia Relations: After more than one year of conflict, the Russia-Ukraine War continues to drag on. Last week, China’s envoy, Li Hui, traveled throughout European capitals to discuss the potential for a “political settlement” of the Ukraine crisis. Meanwhile, Kiev has launched a counteroffensive in five areas along the front in Donetsk. In the background, China-Russia diplomatic, economic, and military relations remain robust. How is the Ukraine war impacting China-Russia relations? Are there limits to the China-Russia partnership? Will relations between Moscow and Beijing grow more or less asymmetrical in the years to come? This China in the World podcast was recorded as a live Twitter Spaces discussion featuring Alexander Gabuev, Amy Chew, and Paul Haenle on the state of the Ukraine War and China-Russia relations. by China in the World

62 min listen

China’s Rising Influence in the Middle East: Although traditionally focused on economic engagement in the Middle East, in recent months China has indicated a greater willingness to engage in regional conflict mediation. The Saudi-Iran normalization agreement, brokered in Beijing, speaks to China’s growing involvement in regional political and security issues. Chinese officials have also expressed interest in de-escalating the Israel-Palestine crisis and renewing the Iran nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the United States appears to be shifting its strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe. Will China replace the United States as the leading outside power in the Middle East? What role can Beijing play in meditating regional disputes? How are Middle Eastern states responding to rising U.S.-China rivalry? In this live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle moderated a discussion with Maha Yahya, Yu Jie, and Benjamin Ho on the key issues in China-Middle East rel by China in the World

61 min listen

Empires of Ideas: Higher Education in China and the United States: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with William C. Kirby, T.M. Chang Professor of China Studies and Spangler Family Professor of Business Administration at Harvard University. The discussion highlights Dr. Kirby’s new book, Empires of Ideas: Creating the Modern University from Germany to America to China (Harvard University Press: 2022). Kirby’s book chronicles two revolutions in higher education over the last two centuries–the birth of the research university and its integration with the liberal education model–drawing illuminating comparisons between notable universities in the United States, Germany, and China. Haenle and Kirby also discuss current events such as the Biden administration’s economic policy toward China, articulated in recent speeches by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, as well as rising U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan. Wil by China in the World

49 min listen

The China Policy George W. Bush Handed to Barack Obama: U.S.-China relations and East Asian affairs have evolved significantly over the last two decades. Nonetheless, many of the same questions continue to challenge policymakers in Washington. How should the United States grapple with a rising China? How should it engage militarily and economically in Asia? How does China factor into the United States’ Asia policy? In a new book, Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama, National Security Council experts from the Bush administration comment on declassified transition memoranda that provide a firsthand look at the foreign policy the Bush administration turned over to President Obama. Join Paul Haenle as he sits down with three other members of the Bush administration’s National Security Council—Michael J. Green, Meghan O'Sullivan, and Faryar Shirzad—to discuss the evolution of U.S. policy toward China and East Asia. by China in the World

61 min listen

China-EU Relations One Year into the Ukraine War: As the war in Ukraine drags on, China-EU relations face mounting uncertainties. Beijing has attempted to tread a fine line between maintaining its strategic partnership with Russia, while mitigating downward pressure on relations with the European Union. China’s 12-point position paper is the latest sign of Beijing’s attempt to portray itself as a neutral party to the conflict in Ukraine. On the other hand, China’s failure to use its influence on Russia to respect the UN Charter has cast doubt in Brussels on the sincerity of Beijing’s plan. Despite their differences, China and the EU maintain common interests in promoting global trade and addressing challenges like climate change. How is Beijing’s position on the Ukraine war impacting China-EU relations? Can Brussels and Beijing cooperate on transnational issues, while managing their differences? What role can Europe play in rising U.S.-China competition? Paul spoke with Dan Baer, seni by China in the World

63 min listen

China Policy During the George W. Bush Administration: On this joint episode of the China in the World podcast and the Asia Chessboard, Jude Blanchette interviews Paul Haenle and two of his former White House National Security Council (NSC) colleagues, Michael Green and Faryar Shirzad, about U.S. policy toward China during the George W. Bush administration. The three experts begin by recapping economic and security ties between the United States and China at the outset of the Bush administration in 2001, discussing the administration’s China policy and the legacy of its approach to Asia more broadly. The conversation then turns to the broader implications of trends in U.S.-China economic relations, which are increasingly characterized by heightened government controls and expectations of loyalty among multinational firms. Next, they emphasize the importance of placing the U.S.-China relationship on better footing and improving communication. They observe how the Bush administration’s e by China in the World

50 min listen

10 Years of The North Korea Challenge: To commemorate the 10th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Carnegie China is launching a series of lookback episodes, using clips from previous interviews to put current international issues in context. For the third episode in this series, the podcast looks back on 10 years of dealing with the North Korea challenge. Developments on the Korean Peninsula have undergone major changes since the launch of the China in the World podcast. In 2011, Kim Jong-un succeeded his father, Kim Jong-il, as supreme leader of North Korea, beginning his tenure with a series of internal purges and a more assertive military posture. While the Obama administration was able to reach a moratorium agreement with North Korea on nuclear and long-range missile tests in February 2012, the agreement was quickly broken in April 2012 with an attempted space launch of the Unha-3. Between 2013 and 2016, North Korea held three nuclear tests, followed in 2017 by North K by China in the World

34 min listen

The State of Southeast Asia in 2023: The ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute recently released its State of Southeast Asia 2023 Survey, which gauges the views and perceptions of Southeast Asians on geopolitical developments affecting the region over the preceding year. The 2023 survey reveals that Southeast Asia’s top preoccupations include recessionary pressures, potential military tensions, and a ‘slow and ineffective’ ASEAN. China continues to be regarded as the most influential economic and political power in the region, while the US has sharpened its edge over China in the event of a "forced choice." Japan remains Southeast Asia's most trusted major power. In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Ms. Sharon Seah, Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre, about the findings of the 2023 survey. Ms. Sharon Seah is a Senior Fellow and Coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre Coordinator and the Climate Change in Sout by China in the World

34 min listen

10 Years of China-Russia Relations: To commemorate the 10th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Carnegie China is launching a series of lookback episodes, using clips from previous interviews to put current international issues in context. For the second episode in this series, the podcast looks back on ten years of China-Russia relations, one year into the war in Ukraine. China-Russia relations have evolved significantly since the launch of the China in the World podcast. In 2014, Russia announced its annexation of Crimea, which at the time was viewed with ambivalence in China. While Beijing abstained from the UN Security Council resolution to invalidate the 2014 Crimean referendum, China simultaneously criticized the Western sanctions regime imposed on Russia. Over the course of the following 10 years, Moscow and Beijing gradually expanded their economic, diplomatic, and security exchanges to the point where, today, many view the China-Russia relationship as the strongest by China in the World

24 min listen

Hand-Off: The China Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama: On this joint episode of the China in the World podcast and the U.S.-China Nexus podcast, Eleanor Albert interviews Paul Haenle and two of his former National Security Council (NSC) colleagues, Dennis Wilder and Faryar Shirzad, about U.S. policy toward China during the George W. Bush administration. The three experts assess president Bush’s approach to China and the strategic perspective that guided U.S. engagement with Beijing as well as its hedging strategy against the prospect of a more ambitious China. In many respects, Haenle, Shirzad, and Wilder find that the Bush administration's economic and security initiatives served as building blocks for the United States’ current strategy in the Indo-Pacific. The conversation touches on the China section of the recently published Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama (2023), an edited volume with 30 commentaries and newly declassified transition by China in the World

42 min listen

China-Russia Relations One Year into the Ukraine War: Nearly twelve months ago, Russia launched a large-scale land invasion into Ukraine, upending the post-Cold War landscape in Europe. While the United States and NATO quickly coalesced around the defense of Ukraine, many countries in Asia and the developing world have carefully balanced their relations between Russia, Ukraine, and the West. China, for its part, has straddled several competing objectives–calling for an end to hostilities in Ukraine, yet maintaining a close strategic partnership with Russia. Amid the war in Ukraine, trade between Beijing and Moscow is on the rise. Chinese and Russian diplomats maintain frequent contact. Bilateral military exercises continue unabated. Still, little evidence suggests that China is evading Western sanctions, and Chinese diplomats continue to express rhetorical support for territorial integrity in Ukraine. How is the Ukraine war impacting China-Russia relations? Are there limits to the Chi by China in the World

62 min listen

10 Years of U.S.-China Diplomacy: To commemorate the 10th anniversary of the China in the World podcast, Carnegie China is launching a series of lookback episodes, using clips from previous interviews to put current international issues in context. For the first episode in this series, the podcast looks back on ten years of U.S.-China diplomacy following the postponement of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to China in early 2023. The China in the World podcast has spanned three U.S. administrations and covered several historic bilateral meetings, from Obama and Xi’s summit in Sunnylands, California in June 2013 to Trump and Xi’s meeting at Mar-a-Lago in April 2017. This episode gives a glimpse into the evolution of U.S.-China relations during a pivotal decade and sheds light on what can be accomplished during high-level meetings–what went right and what went wrong during past meetings. by China in the World

42 min listen

Missed Opportunities in China-Philippines Relations: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. recently visited Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting resulted in 14 bilateral cooperation agreements, including over $20 billion in new investment pledges, as well as commitments to manage maritime differences in the South China Sea. In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby, Associate Professor in the Department of International Studies of De La Salle University, about the Marcos-Xi meeting, China-Philippines relations in the South China Sea, and the evolution of the Philippines' approach to China across multiple administrations. by China in the World

36 min listen

Where Do China-India Relations Stand?: Despite some progress on the border dispute, China and India remain at odds. Beijing’s assertiveness in the Himalayas has pushed New Delhi closer toward the United States and Europe, and there are few signs that the two Asian powers can mend their strained relationship. Though New Delhi’s ties with Washington are warming, the latter has been frustrated by the former’s refusal to join Western sanctions on Russia. And while India has further embraced the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and strengthened ties with other Asian countries, it has been reticent to fully align with Washington in several areas. Their differences notwithstanding, can China and India find common ground? Where are the limits in U.S.-India ties? by China in the World

63 min listen

Xi Jinping’s Charm Offensive in Southeast Asia: Following the 20th Party Congress, China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping engaged in a flurry of high-level diplomatic meetings with heads of state from dozens of countries in East and Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Hoang Thi Ha, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, about Xi’s recent diplomacy, China-ASEAN relations, U.S.-China competition in Southeast Asia, and environmental issues in the Mekong subregion. by China in the World

43 min listen

U.S.-China Relations After the Midterms: Amid the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration has maintained focus on China and enjoyed robust bipartisan support for pursuing a tough approach to Beijing. Recent U.S. export controls on semiconductors and related chip manufacturing equipment have raised the stakes of U.S.-China competition, and many in China now feel as though the United States is seeking to slow China's rise. Beijing, for its part, is not backing down from U.S. pressure. Unprecedented military drills around Taiwan after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei roiled bilateral ties. How might the U.S. midterm elections impact Biden’s China policy? Will Beijing amend its approach toward Washington after the 20th Party Congress? by China in the World

60 min listen

U.S.-China Dynamics in Southeast Asia: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Evan Laksmana about U.S.-China dynamics in Southeast Asia and Southeast Asian views of U.S. foreign policy in the region. Haenle and Laksmana touch on the role of ASEAN, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework as well as China and the United States’ competing visions of regional order. by China in the World

50 min listen

Rising Tension in the Taiwan Strait: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Qi Dongtao about U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan, China’s new Taiwan White Paper, the state and trajectory of cross-Strait relations, and the implications of shifts in U.S. policy, including those related to the potential passage of the Taiwan Policy Act introduced by the U.S. Senate. Haenle and Qi also discuss Dongtao’s new article published in the Journal of Contemporary China, “Urban Chinese Support for Armed Unification with Taiwan,” that examines which groups on the mainland show stronger support for armed unification with Taiwan and what factors contribute to their support. by China in the World

39 min listen

Distinguished Speakers Series: Anja Manuel on International Order and Disorder: The international order is shifting. Besides COVID-19 and supply chain disruptions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to major crises that threaten global stability. While the European Union, the United States, and their allies and partners struggle to preserve peace in Europe, tensions are rising across the globe in the Taiwan Strait. To what degree has the world order shifted in 2022? How might the United States respond to intensifying challenges from Russia and China? How can the United States leverage the support of its allies and partners? by China in the World

47 min listen

China’s Role in Sri Lanka’s Debt Crisis: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Anushka Wijesinha about the ongoing political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka. The discussion covers the domestic and international causes of Sri Lanka’s debt crisis, Beijing’s role in the Sri Lankan economy, and the path forward for debt restructuring negotiations between Colombo and Beijing. The two also touch on the broader impact of China’s development financing in the global south in the context of rising inflation and interest rates around the world. by China in the World

37 min listen

America’s Great-Power Opportunity with Ali Wyne: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Ali Wyne about his new book, America's Great-Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition. Wyne’s book examines an increasingly salient yet poorly defined feature of international politics: great power competition. The book charts the similarities and differences between the current geopolitical environment and that of the Cold War, the nuances between the challenges posed by China and Russia, the strengths and weaknesses of their strategic partnership, and the principles upon which an affirmative rather than reactive U.S. grand strategy can be based. by China in the World

46 min listen

The Strategic Importance of the Indo-Pacific: In this episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle speaks with Darshana Baruah about maritime security in Asia as well as recent developments in the Indo-Pacific. Having both recently participated in the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Paul and Darshana discuss key takeaways from Asia's premier security summit. Darshana also shares her perspectives on shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Islands as well as new trends in India’s foreign policy. by China in the World

32 min listen

Distinguished Speakers Series: Evan Medeiros on U.S.-China Competition: During a live recording of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle sat down with Evan Medeiros, Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies and the Cling Family Senior Fellow in US-China Relations at Georgetown University, to explore the Biden administration’s approach to Asia. This discussion is the first of Carnegie China's 2022 Distinguished Speakers Series and is available to be viewed on the Carnegie Endowment's website. by China in the World

48 min listen

Live Recording Replay: China’s Growing Role in the Middle East: China’s Growing Role in the Middle East As the United States reduces its footprint in the Middle East, China is stepping up its diplomatic and economic engagement in the region. Beijing has already struck notable deals with longstanding U.S. partners such as Saudi Arabia while maintaining strong ties to Iran. How will regional countries navigate intensifying U.S.-China competition? What role will China play on economic, diplomatic, and security issues in the Middle East? And how might the United States respond to Beijing’s growing influence in the region? by China in the World

62 min listen

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Paul Haenle on U.S.-China Relations in the Trump Administration

Paul Haenle on U.S.-China Relations in the Trump Administration

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