In this episode, we get the details on a friendly wager between Ken Caldeira, a senior scientist at the Carnegie Institution, and Ted Nordhaus, founder and executive director of the Breakthrough Institute. Caldeira also is a senior advisor to Gates Ventures, but is not speaking on their behalf.

Nordhaus is betting that global CO₂ emissions peaked in 2019, but Caldeira disagrees. Host Daniel Raimi asks each of them to lay out the arguments for and against the assertion that emissions peaked in 2019, and they explore the underlying factors that will likely drive the outcome of the wager. Raimi, Caldeira, and Nordhaus discuss the role of Covid-19, energy technologies, human behavior, and even the extinction of the dinosaurs.

References and recommendations:

The origin of the bet on Twitter; https://twitter.com/KenCaldeira/status/1344783094553800705?s=20

"How to Avoid a Climate Disaster" by Bill Gates; https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/633968/how-to-avoid-a-climate-disaster-by-bill-gates/

"Growth" by Vaclav Smil; https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/growth