If you’re like us, you’ve been checking the FiveThirtyEight election forecast like it’s a weather report before a hurricane. This week, Donald Trump’s chance of victory in the presidential race went from 15 percent to over 30 percent, causing much anxiety for Democrats. But how serious is the swing? Harry Enten is the senior political writer for FiveThirtyEight and a frequent Gist guest.   For the Spiel, why Hillary Clinton should own her terrible comic timing. Today’s sponsors: Indochino, the company that’s reinventing men’s fashion. Go to Indochino.com to get any premium suit for just $389, plus free shipping, when you use promo code gist at checkout. And Rocket Mortgage from Quicken Loans. Rocket Mortgage brings the mortgage process into the 21st century with an easy online process. Check out Rocket Mortgage today at QuickenLoans.com/gist.Join Slate Plus! Members get bonus segments, exclusive member-only podcasts, and more. Sign up for a free trial today at slate.com/gistplus. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices