Today’s mega combo episode is Chris Voss, Robert Cialdini, Philip Tetlock, Spyros Makridakis, and Tim Ferriss. Chris Voss is the author of, Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It. Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases. Robert Cialdini is best known for writing Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are six key principles of influence he teaches. His new book, Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade, introduces a seventh key principle of influence. Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, is probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting. Spyros Makridakis is Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. Tim Ferriss is an author, blogger and motivational speaker known for his bestselling books. Tim has revolutionized the idea of writing a book; he has engineered the process of a bestseller. In this episode of Trend Following Radio: Aversion to negotiation Negotiating skills Never pretend people are rational Business negotiations compared to hostage negotiations Lying three times “How” and “Why” questions What are superforecasters? Probabilistic thinking Looking at data Location independence 80/20 rule Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns Uncertainty How to publish a book