Euro on the edge

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Euro on the edge

FromFT Hard Currency

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9 minutes

Released:

Mar 8, 2018

Format:

Podcast episode

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The European Central Bank is creeping towards the exit from super-stimulative monetary policy. How can it do this without sending the euro flying, particularly while US trade policy unnerves dollar bulls? Stephen Gallo from BMO Capital Markets talked to the FT's Katie Martin about Trump, trade, and taper tantrums. For information regarding your data privacy, visit acast.com/privacy

Released:

Mar 8, 2018

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

Financial Times foreign exchange correspondent Roger Blitz talks to experts on the currencies market about the week ahead, looking at the global political and economic factors driving the world’s largest market.

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Why all countries are looking for a weak currency: Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com talks to FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross about the prospects for more – and different - QE in the USA, why action from the Bank of Japan to weaken the yen is unlikely, and why the Australian dollar... by FT Hard Currency
9 min listen
Pressures on the euro and safe havens: FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross talks to global head of FX strategy at HSBC David Bloom about the pressures on the euro and why he is forecasting a rise in value, the Norwegian krone’s haven status and why the pound is doing well. For informati... by FT Hard Currency
9 min listen
Why QE doesn’t necessarily weaken currencies: In the FT’s look at the week ahead in forex, Elsa Lignos, senior G10 currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets tells Alice Ross, the FT currencies correspondent, why the ECB rate cut has sent the euro south why sterling isn’t a true haven currency. F... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
No silver bullet for currencies: This week the FT's currency correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Humayun Shahryar, chief executive of hedge fund Auvest Capital Management, to discuss the Fed's decision not to introduce a third round of quantitative easing, the difficulty o... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
The rouble's slide: As an effective free float of the rouble drives the currency to all-time lows, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, is joined by Tom Levinson, strategist at Sberbank CIB, to discuss the change in policy. Will Russia's central bank step in t... by FT Hard Currency
8 min listen
Talking down the euro: With Mario Draghi's efforts to talk down the euro bearing fruit, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Jane Foley, strategist at Rabobank, whether investors are now expecting too much of the ECB. And with central banks around the world ... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Sterling's uncertain future: The pound has risen rapidly over the past year. But it fell in July, and faces uncertainties when it comes to Scotland's independence referendum in September. Thomas Hale asks Phyllis Papadavid, currencies strategist at BNP Paribas, what the futur... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
August caution, and is the Aussie dollar overvalued?: Matt Cobon, fixed income manager and FX specialist at Threadneedle Asset Management talks to Alice Ross, FT currency correspondent, about why low volatility in the market means traders are taking risk off the table, why the Australian dollar looks over... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Macroprudential measures' impact on sterling: With UK policy makers flagging concerns over the rising risks of a bubble in the housing market, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC, how macroprudential measures would affect sterling. Also, what w... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
The other view on Greece and QE prospects for the US and UK: FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross talks to Steven Saywell, head of FX currency strategy in Europe at BNP Paribas about why he thinks a Greek exit is unlikely and remains bullish on the euro, as well as a look ahead to the US non-farm payroll data ... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Haven currencies, who’s selling the euro and the Australian dollar: Currencies correspondent Alice Ross explores the trends driving the global currencies market, this week focusing on sterling’s status as a haven currency, why the euro is still strong against the dollar and how a further rate cut in Australia will impa... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
ECB backing sustains euro rise: Jane Foley, senior currency strategist at Rabobank, joins Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent, to discuss how the European Central Bank’s confirmation of plans to buy government bonds in peripheral markets is supporting the euro – even if no actual... by FT Hard Currency
10 min listen
Currency intervention watch: Valentin Marinov, director of FX strategy at Citi, talks to FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross about currency interventions, looking at why the Swiss National Bank will keep defending the Swiss franc’s peg with the euro in the face of increasing mo... by FT Hard Currency
10 min listen
EU Summit special: Can euro optimism last?: John Normand, global head of FX strategy at JPMorgan, talks to FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross about the prospects for the euro following the EU summit and the outlook for emerging market currencies For information regarding your data privacy, ... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
What's stopping the dollar?: With the greenback trading at a two-week low against the euro, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Matt Cobon, head of rates and currencies at Threadneedle Investments, why the consensus bet on dollar strength is not yet paying off. Also, ... by FT Hard Currency
8 min listen
Yen intervention unlikely, but markets expect more ECB bond buying: Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, talks to Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent about why intervention from the Bank of Japan into the yen is unlikely despite the currency’s strength and why whils... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Traders focus on yields: Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon and Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent look at the week ahead in forex. Is the movement of funds out of the euro is a sign of flight, or the possible beginning of a carry trade in euros? Why t... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
The crowded dollar trade: With the dollar at a 7 year high against the yen, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC, what it will take to reignite its rally against other major currencies. Also, does the Save our Swiss Gold Init... by FT Hard Currency
7 min listen
Rollercoaster ride for dollar-yen pair: It's been a month of huge moves for the dollar-yen pair. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting in June, Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent, asks Shahab Jalinoos, FX strategist with UBS, what he expects from the talks as well as whether ... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
No silver bullet for currencies: This week the FT's currency correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Humayun Sharyar, chief executive of hedge fund Auvest Capital Management, to discuss the Fed's decision not to introduce a third round of quantitative easing, the difficulty of... by FT Hard Currency
10 min listen
What effect will the Greek elections have on the euro?: Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of FX strategy at UBS, joins the FT's currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss how the euro might drive currency markets in the wake of the Greek elections, the likelihood of a new round of QE3 in the US in light of ... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Mixed news for sterling: This week Alice Ross, the FT’s currencies correspondent, is joined by Javier Corominas, head of research and fx strategy at Record Currency Management, to discuss what’s driving the pound and euro weakness as the Draghi effect fades. They also look at ... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
How will deadlock in debt talks play out in forex markets?: With the US government shutdown weighing on the dollar, FT currencies correspondent Delphine Strauss is joined by Derek Halpenny, European head of global market research at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. Can forex markets remain this calm if the debt ta... by FT Hard Currency
9 min listen
Yen special: In a week in which the dollar has finally broken through the 100 barrier against the yen, currencies correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Ian Stannard, foreign currency strategist at Morgan Stanley to discuss the regional impact of the weaker yen and ... by FT Hard Currency
10 min listen
Is Switzerland the new China?: This week our currencies correspondent Alice Ross is joined by Kit Juckes from Société Générale to discuss what's going on behind the scenes with the Swiss franc, what next for the euro following the recent ECB meeting and the strength of the Aust... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Shrugging off sanctions: With the forex market showing only a modest reaction to tougher sanctions against Russia, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Elsa Lignos, strategist at RBC Capital Markets, whether currency investors have become less sensitive to geopolit... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Taper tantrum round two?: As the prospect of higher US interest rates puts emerging markets under renewed pressure, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Koon Chow, emerging markets strategist at Barclays, whether we will see a repeat of last year's 'taper ... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
The return of volatility: After the greenback's biggest one-day fall in more than a year, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Matthew Cobon, fund manager at Threadneedle Investments, whether this is the end of the dollar rally; whether volatility will persist;... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
After the flash crash: As investors nurse losses from last week's flash crash in US bond yields, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Valentin Marinov, strategist at Citigroup, what it would take to restore their confidence in the dollar, whether the Bank of... by FT Hard Currency
1 min listen
Is there any relief for emerging markets?: With the sell-off in EM currencies deepening, Delphine Strauss, currencies correspondent, asks Koon Chow of Barclays Capital, what is driving investors’ behaviour, how currency weakness will affect other assets - and which countries might welcome depre... by FT Hard Currency
9 min listen

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Wages growth pays dividend for euro and sterling: Inflation strength in Europe and the the UK and weakness in the US were important factors in forex as central banks took centre stage, while Turkey's big interest rate rise helped stabilise emerging markets. Kamal Sharma of BofA Merrill Lynch tell... by FT Hard Currency
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EM can't catch a break: A week dominated by falls in emerging market currencies, notably the South African rand, is triggering another bout of concern that the problems that afflicted the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira this year are becoming contagious. Kit Juckes of Soc... by FT Hard Currency
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Pushed around by politics: The British pound, Argentina's peso and Turkey's lira: all of them in the news and all getting pushed around (albeit in different directions) by politics. Katie Martin talks to Eoin Murray, head of investment at Hermes, about what the moves a... by FT Hard Currency
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Troubling Trump depresses the dollar: The dollar came under pressure on two fronts this week - Donald Trump's impeachment risk and the president's disparaging remarks about the Federal Reserve for raising US interest rates. But it is the Fed's own views, with a tilt... by FT Hard Currency
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Turkish turmoil raises markets' temperature: Turkey's troubled lira, worries about emerging market currencies and the impact of sanctions and tariffs on the rouble and renminbi have put foreign exchange at the heart of the financial market's traditional August anxiety. Derek Halpenny of... by FT Hard Currency
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Dollar to drive on, pound to stay pat: Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell this week injected renewed vigour into the dollar, while weak data and Brexit woes undermined the pound. David Bloom of HSBC tells Roger Blitz why the case for continued dollar strength is more convincing than the case ... by FT Hard Currency
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Pound takes a pass on Boris blow-out: Investors treated the UK foreign secretary's resignation with little concern, leaving the pound poised for a rally as the prospect of a softer Brexit looms into view. Ugo Lancioni of Neuberger Berman tells Roger Blitz why he is a buyer of sterling... by FT Hard Currency
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China plays its currency card: China's central bank verbally intervened to stabilise the renminbi after a fall that echoed the dramatic declines of 2015-16. Stephen Gallo of Bank of Montreal tells Roger Blitz what we learned about China's currency strategy and argues that ... by FT Hard Currency
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Markets mindful of Merkel's migration problems: Investors have barely had time to acknowledge that there is an EU summit taking place, as trade wars and China worries occupy their thoughts. But as John Wraith of UBS tells Roger Blitz, that's not to say they are complacent about the implications... by FT Hard Currency
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EM sell-off: now it's Asia's turn: The emerging markets sell-off is starting to weigh on Asian currencies. Mansoor Mohi-uddin of NatWest Markets explores the reasons with Roger Blitz, looking at the impact of trade tensions on China and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's ambivalenc... by FT Hard Currency
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Fed flies, ECB evolves: A big week in the policy making world saw the US Federal Reserve plough on with rate hikes while the European Central Bank took a more dovish approach, even though it set a timetable for the end of asset purchases. Michael Sneyd of BNP Paribas tells Ro... by FT Hard Currency
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Euro-bulls should rein in their euphoria: European Central Bank policymakers warmed up investors to a potentially big announcement next week on asset purchases and normalisation, sending the euro higher. Does this mark the end of the dollar rally? Not so fast, Rabobank's Jane Foley tells ... by FT Hard Currency
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Rome's home truths for markets: Markets were guilty of complacency about Italy, says Adrian Hilton of Columbia Threadneedle, failing to appreciate the existential threat to the euro. He tells Roger Blitz what this week's fallout in bonds and currencies means for investors' ... by FT Hard Currency
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How to digest a roasted Turkey: The Turkish lira's collapse has emerging market investors wondering whether there is any case for continuing to hold assets there. Yerlan Syzdykov of European asset manager Amundi, who was among those investors to lunch with president Recep Tayyip... by FT Hard Currency
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Ripple effects of EM forex falls: Local factors are contributing to sharp falls in the currencies of Argentina and Turkey, but other emerging markets cannot escape the impact of the dollar's strength. Simon Quijano-Evans of Legal & General Investment Management looks ... by FT Hard Currency
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EM investors' pain trade: The rout in emerging market currencies has exposed investors to an uncomfortable realisation - they were too willing to buy the EM rally at the start of the year, says Roger Hallam of JP Morgan Asset Management. He spells out to Roger Blitz the lessons... by FT Hard Currency
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Don’t dismiss dollar drive: The sharp rally in the dollar has investors asking whether it is sustainable or about to fizzle out. Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon has the answer, and as he tells Roger Blitz it’s all to do with yield. by FT Hard Currency
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Forget the dollar, follow the yield: A rising dollar and a rising oil price are two of the big market moves of the week. But as Bill McQuaker of Fidelity International tells Roger Blitz, the biggest was the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 3 per cent, signalling the end of the bond bull mar... by FT Hard Currency
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Doubt dominates market mood: Despite global growth, investors are struggling to find a driver, not just in foreign exchange but in other markets. What's causing this doubt and introspection? Helen Thomas of macro-economic consultancy Blonde Money tells Roger Blitz that three ... by FT Hard Currency
12 min listen
FX fails to get the memo: With some notable exceptions, currencies are spookily quiet in the middle of tensions over trade, signs of slowing growth in Europe, and the ever-present risk that Twitter spats could spiral into geopolitical crises. But Tim Graf of State Street Global... by FT Hard Currency
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EM embraces the change: Trade tensions and equity sell-offs should be making investors wary of risky emerging market assets. But Wike Groenenberg of BNP Paribas tells Roger Blitz why EM is proving resilient to market pressures and looks at the factors that will influence its ... by FT Hard Currency
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Keep calm, but keep an eye on protectionism: January's euphoria seems a world away as volatility infects markets, but Silvia Dall'Angelo of Hermes Investment Management tells Roger Blitz that economic fundamentals are still sound and the dollar remains under pressure. The big worry, how... by FT Hard Currency
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Doubts about the dollar, positives for for the pound: A Fed rate hike, market tensions about tariffs, a Brexit transition deal and Bank of England hawkishness - Erik Norland of CME Group tells Roger Blitz why things are looking up for sterling and less promising for the greenback by FT Hard Currency
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Currency traders track a trade 'cold war': How big an impact is the prospect of an international trade dispute centred on US tariffs having on the foreign exchange market? Viraj Patel joins the FT's Michael Hunter to look at the main factors moving currencies, including economic fundamenta... by FT Hard Currency
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Powell pumps up the dollar: New Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's optimistic view of the US economy and faster rate hikes caused stocks to sell off and the dollar to rise. But Jean Medecin of Carmignac thinks this outlook is too rosy, and that the world needs to ge... by FT Hard Currency
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Currency markets keep their poise: Foreign exchange investors have sat out much of the recent market volatility. Roger Hallam of JPMorgan Asset Management joins Michael Hunter to look at why dollar weakness has proved so stubborn and to identify the‎ wider market trends. by FT Hard Currency
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Euro on the edge

Euro on the edge

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Titles in the series (100)

More Episodes from FT Hard Currency

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